There’s a big day of racing at Kempton on Saturday and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power! If Smart Call or La Figlia wins the 15:15 at Kempton, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.50 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed pre-race to be eligible.
For our qualifying bet, we need to back and lay any horse other than Smart Call or La Figlia. At the time of writing, the lay odds are not quite tight enough, so I’ll use Hunaina (9/2) in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with some actual odds after the race.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator.
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Hunaina wins | + £45.00 – £46.00 = £1.00 loss |
Smart Call or La Figlia wins | – £10.00 + £9.00 + £7.50 (extract 75% from our £10.00 free bet) = £6.50 profit |
Another horse wins | – £10.00 + £9.00 = £1.00 loss |
So, if Smart Call or La Figlia wins, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.50. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £1.00. Risking £1.00 to make a profit of £6.50, gives us effective odds of 7.50. So, given that Smart Call and La Figlia are odds of 4.00 (3/1) to win the race, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, free bets will be credited within 2 hours of the race ending and will be valid on horse racing for 7 days.
If you’re unsure how to extract 75% of our £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* Hunaina was available at back odds of 5.50 and lay odds of 6.20. Hunaina won the race, resulting in a loss of £1.28 on this Paddy Power offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.