There’s a big day of racing at Fairyhouse today and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power! If the Dan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (14:35) is won by a Willie Mullins-trained horse, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.71 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
We need to place our qualifying bet on any horse other than the three Willie Mullins-trained horses; Acapella Bourgeois, Polidam and Townshend.
At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional odds for Don’t Touch It in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the race.
We’ll need to place our lay bet with Smarkets as Betfair have merged with Paddy Power and are now part of the same group.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.40…
Place £10.00 on Don’t Touch It @ 6.00 = Potential profit of £50.00
Lay £9.40 on Don’t Touch It @ 6.40 = Potential liability of £50.76
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Don’t Touch It wins | + £50.00 – £50.76 = £0.76 loss |
Willie Mullins-trained horse wins | – £10.00 + £9.21 + £7.50 (extract 75% from our £10.00 free bet) = £6.71 profit |
Another horse wins | – £10.00 + £9.21 = £0.79 loss |
So, if a Willie Mullins-trained horse wins, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.71. Any other outcome and we’ll lose a maximum of £0.79. Risking £0.79 to make a profit of £6.71, gives us effective odds of 9.49. So, given that Acapella Bourgeois, Polidam and Townshend are odds of 3.75, 4.50 and 11.00 respectively to win the race, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, free bets will be credited within 2 hours of the race ending and will be valid on horse racing for 7 days.
If you’re unsure how to extract 75% of our £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* I was unable to find a suitable qualifying bet, so I decided to give this offer a miss. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.