There’s a big day of racing at Thurles today and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power! If the 14:20 at Thurles is won by 2 lengths or more, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.71 and here’s how…
Strategy:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for. At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional odds for Shower Cross in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the race.
We’ll need to place our lay bet with Smarkets as Betfair have joined forces with Paddy Power and are now part of the same group.
Qualifying Bet:
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.40…
Place £10.00 on Shower Cross @ 6.00 = Potential profit of £50.00
Lay £9.40 on Shower Cross @ 6.40 = Potential liability of £50.76
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Shower Cross wins | + £50.00 – £50.76 = £0.76 loss |
| Shower Cross doesn’t win and race is won by 2+ lengths | – £10.00 + £9.21 + £7.50 (extract 75% from our £10.00 free bet) = £6.71 profit |
| Shower Cross doesn’t win and race isn’t won by 2+ lengths | – £10.00 + £9.21 = £0.79 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.71 if Shower Cross doesn’t win and the race is won by 2+ lengths, and we stand to lose a maximum of £0.79 on any other outcome. Risking £0.79 to make a profit of £6.71 gives us effective odds of 9.49, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
Free bets will be credited to those eligible, within two hours of the race ending and will be valid for 7 days on horse racing markets.
If you’re unsure how to extract 75% of a £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* See my Horse Racing Offers page for a full list of money back offers available today! *
* Shower Cross was available at back odds of 5.50 and lay odds of 6.20. Knockraha Pylon won the race by 2.75 lengths, resulting in a profit of £6.22 on this Paddy Power offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.