Money Back Special (14:25 Leopardstown) – Paddy Power

It’s the William Fry Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown today and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power! If Total Recall wins the 14:25 at Leopardstown, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.42 and here’s how…

Strategy:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

We need to place our qualifying bet on any horse other than Total Recall. At the time of writing the lay odds are not quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional odds for Flawless Escape in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with some actual odds after the race.

We’ll need to place our lay bet with Smarkets as Betfair have merged with Paddy Power and are now part of the same group.

Qualifying Bet:

We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.11…

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

So, if Total Recall wins, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.42. Any other outcome and we’ll lose a maximum of £1.08. Risking £1.08 to make a profit of £6.42, gives us effective odds of 6.94. So, given that Total Recall is odds of just 2.10 (11/10) to win the race, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, free bets will be credited within 2 hours of the race ending and will be valid on horse racing for 7 days.

If you’re unsure how to extract 75% of our £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* Lite Duties was available at back odds of 13.00 and lay odds of 15.00. Total Recall won the race, resulting in a profit of £6.00 on this Paddy Power offer. *