There’s a big day of racing at Newbury today and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power! If the Betfair Hurdle (15:35) is won by a Nicky Henderson-trained horse, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.42 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
We need to place our qualifying bet on any horse other than the five Nicky Henderson-trained horses; Jenkins, Verdana Blue, Kayf Grace, Lough Derg Spirit and Charli Parcs.
At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional odds for Irish Roe in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the race.
We’ll need to place our lay bet with Smarkets as Betfair have merged with Paddy Power and are now part of the same group.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.11…
Place £10.00 on Irish Roe @ 10.00 = Potential profit of £90.00
Lay £9.11 on Irish Roe @ 11.00 = Potential liability of £91.10
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Irish Roe wins | + £90.00 – £91.10 = £1.10 loss |
| Nicky Henderson-trained horse wins | – £10.00 + £8.92 + £7.50 (extract 75% from our £10.00 free bet) = £6.42 profit |
| Another horse wins | – £10.00 + £8.92 = £1.08 loss |
So, if a Nicky Henderson-trained horse wins, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.42. Any other outcome and we’ll lose a maximum of £1.10. Risking £1.10 to make a profit of £6.42, gives us effective odds of 6.84. So, given that Nicky Henderson has five horses running at odds of 10.00, 13.00, 13.00, 21.00 and 34.00, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, free bets will be credited within 2 hours of the race ending and will be valid on horse racing for 7 days.
If you’re unsure how to extract 75% of our £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* Kalashnikov was available at back odds of 11.00 and lay odds of 12.50. Kalashnikov won the race, resulting in a loss of £1.31 on this Paddy Power Money Back Special. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.