Money Back Special (16:20 Punchestown) – Paddy Power

There’s a big day of racing at Punchestown today and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power! If the Grand National Trial (16:20) is won by a Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliot-trained horse, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.57 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

We need to place our qualifying bet on any horse other than those trained by Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliot; Childrens List, Folsom Blue, Space Cadet, Out Sam, Woods Well and Isleofhopendreams.

At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional odds for Mall Dini in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the race.

We’ll need to place our lay bet with Smarkets as Betfair have merged with Paddy Power and are now part of the same group.

We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.26…

Paddy Power logo

Place £10.00 on Mall Dini @ 8.50 = Potential profit of £75.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £9.26 on Mall Dini @ 9.20 = Potential liability of £75.93

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Mall Dini wins + £75.00 – £75.93 = £0.93 loss
Mullins or Elliot-trained horse wins – £10.00 + £9.07 + £7.50 (extract 75% from our £10.00 free bet) = £6.57 profit
Another horse wins – £10.00 + £9.07 = £0.93 loss

So, if a Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliot-trained horse wins, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.57. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £0.93. Risking £0.93 to make a profit of £6.57, gives us effective odds of 8.06. So, given that Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliot have six horses between them running, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, free bets will be credited within 2 hours of the race ending and will be valid on horse racing for 7 days.

If you’re unsure how to extract 75% of our £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* Spider Web was available at back odds of 11.00 and lay odds of 12.00. The race was won by Folsom Blue who is trained by Gordon Elliot, resulting in a profit of £6.49 on this Paddy Power Money Back Special. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.