£6.98
Potential Profit
£6.95
Actual Profit

Money Back Special (15:35 Warwick) – Paddy Power


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 13/01/2018 15:35

There’s a big day of racing at Warwick on Saturday and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power! If the Classic Handicap Chase (15:35) is won by 4 lengths or more, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.98 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for. At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional odds for Sir Mangan in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with some actual odds after the race.

We’ll need to place our lay bet with Smarkets as Betfair have joined forces with Paddy Power and are now part of the same group.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.68…

Paddy Power logo

Place £10.00 on Sir Mangan @ 8.50 = Potential profit of £75.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £9.68 on Sir Mangan @ 8.80 = Potential liability of £75.50

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Sir Mangan wins+ £75.00 – £75.50 = £0.50 loss
Sir Mangan doesn't win and race is won by 4+ lengths- £10.00 + £9.48 + £7.50 (extract 75% from our £10.00 free bet) = £6.98 profit
Sir Mangan doesn't win and race isn't won by 4+ lengths- £10.00 + £9.48 = £0.52 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.98 if Sir Mangan doesn’t win and the race is won by 4+ lengths, and we stand to lose a maximum of £0.52 on any other outcome. Risking £0.52 to make a profit of £6.98 gives us effective odds of 14.42, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, free bets will be credited within two hours of the race ending and will be valid for 7 days on horse racing markets.

If you’re unsure how to extract 75% of a £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* See my Horse Racing Offers page for a full list of money back offers available today! *

* Missed Approach was available at back odds of 5.00 and lay odds of 5.20. Milansbar won the race by 11 lengths, resulting in a profit of £6.95 on this Paddy Power offer. *

Post a comment


Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *