Paddy Power have gone Cheltmental again with this fantastic Cheltenham offer! If Douvan wins the Supreme Novices Hurdle, Paddy Power will refund all losing single stakes on that race as a free bet up to £50.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential risk-free profit of £13.84 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
For this particular offer, we need to select any horse other than Douvan (current favourite at 7/4). This ensures that if Douvan wins, our qualifying bet will have lost, meaning that we’ll be eligible for the free bet refund. Having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted to keep my qualifying losses to minimum and place my qualifying bet on Lami Serge.
Place £50.00 on Lami Serge @ 4.333 = Potential profit of £166.65
Lay £43.77 on Lami Serge @ 5.00 = Potential liability of £175.08
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Lami Serge wins | +£166.65 – £175.08 = £8.43 loss |
| Douvan wins | -£50.00 + £41.58 + £40.00 (extract 80% from our £50.00 free bet) = £31.58 profit |
| Neither wins | -£50.00 + £41.58 = £8.42 loss |
So as things stand we will make £31.58 profit Douvan (the favourite) wins. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £8.43 on any other outcome and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying Douvan at Betfair. In order to calculate our lay stake, we need to divide £8.43 by 0.95 to account for the 5% commission. This gives us a lay stake of £8.87.
Lay £8.87 on Douvan @ 3.00 = Potential liability of £17.74
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Lami Serge wins | -£8.43 + £8.43 = £0.00 |
| Douvan wins | £31.58 – £17.74 = £13.84 profit |
| Neither wins | -£8.42 + £8.43 = £0.01 profit |
So if Douvan doesn’t win, we will break even and there’s no harm done. However, if Douvan justifies his favourite tag by winning the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham we will make a nice risk-free profit of £13.84!
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £50.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.