Paddy Power – Money Back if Horse Loses (14:50 Cheltenham)

It’s another big day of racing at Cheltenham on Saturday and you don’t want to miss this Paddy Power offer! Place a bet of up to £10.00 on the 14:50 Cheltenham and if it loses, Paddy Power will refund our stake as a free bet. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £5.65 and here’s how…

Key terms

  • Money back as a free bet if our horse loses in the 14:50 Cheltenham.
  • Applies to bets placed between 16:00 on Thursday 11th November 2021 and 14:50 (race-off) on Saturday 13th November 2021.
  • Offer applies to the win market and the win part of each way bets only.
  • Applies to bets of up to £10.00.

Qualifying bet

Losing stakes are refunded as a free bet, so we can treat this as a risk-free bet offer.

We’ll need to select a horse with long odds in order to maximise our profit.

At the time of writing, Sporting John is available at back odds of 7.50 (13/2) and lay odds of 8.60.

We can work out our lay stake by using the ‘Risk-Free Bet’ setting on my Matched Betting Calculator. We can enter £8.00 as our ‘Cashback’ figure as that’s the cash amount we can expect to convert our £10.00 free bet into if our horse loses…

Select bet type

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £7.81…

Place £10.00 on Sporting John @ 7.50 = Potential profit of £65.00

Lay £7.81 on Sporting John @ 8.60 = Potential liability of £59.35

Outcomes

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

OutcomePaddy PowerExchangeFree BetProfit/Loss
Sporting John wins+ £65.00– £59.35£5.65 profit
Another horse wins– £10.00+ £7.65+ £8.00£5.65 profit

So, no matter the outcome, we’ll make a guaranteed profit of £5.65 on this Paddy Power offer!

If eligible, free bets will be credited within 2 hours of the race ending and will be valid on any horse racing market for 7 days.

If you’re unsure how to convert your £10.00 free bet into £8.00 cash (80%), please see my free bets guide for a walkthrough of how it should be done.

* Sporting John won the race, resulting in a profit of £5.65 on this Paddy Power offer. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £60,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.