Paddy Power – Money Back Offer (14:10 Ayr)

There’s a big day of racing at Ayr on Friday and you don’t want to miss this Paddy Power money back offer! Place a bet of up to £10.00 on the 14:10 Ayr and if our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, Paddy Power will refund our stake as a free bet. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.69 and here’s how…

Key terms

  • We must place our bet between 14:00 on Thursday 16th September 2021 and 14:10 (race-off) on Friday 17th September 2021.
  • Offer applies to the win market and the win part of each way bets only.
  • If less than 6 runners take part, this offer will revert to money back if 2nd.
  • If our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, Paddy Power will refund our stake as a free bet, up to £10.00.

Qualifying bet

If you’d like more information about qualifying bets and how they work, please see my qualifying bets guide.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish.

At the time of writing, Canonized is available at back odds of 8.50 (15/2) and lay odds of 9.60.

We can calculate our lay stakes using my Matched Betting Calculator

Select bet type

Back Bet (Bookie)

Advanced
%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%
Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £8.87…

Place £10.00 on Canonized @ 8.50 = Potential profit of £75.00

Lay £8.87 on Canonized @ 9.60 = Potential liability of £76.28

Outcomes

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

OutcomePaddy PowerExchangeFree BetProfit/Loss
Canonized wins+ £75.00– £76.28£1.28 loss
Canonized finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th– £10.00+ £8.69+ £8.00£6.69 profit
Any other outcome– £10.00+ £8.69£1.31 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.69 if Canonized finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th or we’ll lose a maximum of £1.31 on any other outcome. Risking £1.31 to make a profit of £6.69 gives us effective odds of 6.11, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, free bets will be credited within 2 hours of the race ending and will be valid on any horse racing market for 7 days.

If you’re unsure how to convert your £10.00 free bet into £8.00 cash (80%), please see my free bets guide for a walkthrough of how it should be done.

* Canonized finished outside the top 4, resulting in a loss of £1.31 on this Paddy Power offer. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £60,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.