Why bother looking for horse racing tips today, when you can do a bit of matched betting and make low-risk profits? Paddy Power are back with another Money Back Special on Saturday’s horse racing. If your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 14:20 at York race course, Paddy Power will refund all losing outright bets on that race as a free bet up to £50.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £36.63 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd placed finish. At the time of writing, the odds aren’t great so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example to show how the offer should be done and I’ll then update the bottom of this post with my actual selection after the race.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges. We can calculate our lay stakes using the matched betting calculator.
Place £50.00 on Alejandro @ 5.50 = Potential profit of £225.00
Lay £47.58 on Alejandro @ 5.80 = Potential liability of £228.37
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Alejandro wins | £225.00 – £228.37 = £3.37 loss |
| Alejandro places 2nd or 3rd | -£50.00 + £46.63 + £40.00 (extract 80% from our £50.00 free bet) = £36.63 profit |
| Alejandro places outside top 3 | -£50.00 + £46.63 = £3.37 loss |
So we will make a nice profit of £36.63 if Alejandro places 2nd or 3rd and we stand to lose £3.37 on any other outcome. A £3.37 risk to make £36.63 profit gives us effective odds of 11.87, so the fact that Alejandro is 1.43 to place in the top 3, surely makes this a very profitable offer in the long run.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £50.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Alfred Hutchinson with back odds of 9.00 and lay odds of 9.60. Alfred Hutchinson finished outside the top 3, which left me with an overall loss of £3.97 on this offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.