Paddy Power Offer – 14:25 Ascot (Saturday)

It’s the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday and you don’t want to miss this Paddy Power offer! If Unowhatimeanharry wins the 14:25 at Ascot, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.80 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

We need to place our qualifying bet on any horse other than Unowhatimeanharry.

At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional odds for Thomas Campbell in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with some actual odds after the race.

We’ll need to place our lay bet with Smarkets as Betfair have merged with Paddy Power and are now part of the same group.

We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.49…

Paddy Power logo

Place £10.00 on Thomas Campbell @ 7.00 = Potential profit of £60.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £9.49 on Thomas Campbell @ 7.40 = Potential liability of £60.73

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Thomas Campbell wins + £60.00 – £60.73 = £0.73 loss
Unowhatimeanharry wins – £10.00 + £9.30 + £7.50 (extract 75% from our £10.00 free bet) = £6.80 profit
Another horse wins – £10.00 + £9.30 = £0.70 loss

So, if Unowhatimeanharry wins, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.80. Any other outcome and we’ll lose a maximum of £0.73. Risking £0.73 to make a profit of £6.80, gives us effective odds of 10.32. So, given that Unowhatimeanharry is odds of 2.75 to win the race, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, free bets will be credited within 2 hours of the race ending and will be valid on horse racing for 7 days.

If you’re unsure how to extract 75% of our £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* Sam Spinner was available at back odds of 9.00 and lay odds of 8.60. Sam Spinner won the race, resulting in a small qualifying profit of £0.28 on this Paddy Power offer. *

Got a question?
Leave me a comment below

I usually respond within 24 hours.

Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.