Paddy Power Offer – 15:00 Galway (Thursday)

Why bother looking for horse racing tips today, when you can do a bit of matched betting and make low-risk profits?  Paddy Power are back with another Money Back Special on Thursday’s horse racing at Galway.  If your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 15:00 at Galway race course, Paddy Power will refund all losing outright bets on that race as a free bet up to £50.00.  Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £36.13 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd placed finish.  At the time of writing, the odds aren’t great, so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example to show how the offer should be done and I’ll then update the bottom of this post with my actual selection after the race.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges. We can calculate our lay stakes using the matched betting calculator.

paddypower

Place £50.00 on Rock Critic @ 4.50 = Potential profit of £175.00

smarkets white

Lay £47.07 on Rock Critic @ 4.80  = Potential liability of £178.87

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Rock Critic wins £175.00 – £178.87 = £3.95 loss
Rock Critic places 2nd or 3rd -£50.00 + £46.13 + £40.00 (extract 80% from our £50.00 free bet) = £36.13 profit
Rock Critic places outside top 3 -£50.00 + £46.13 = £3.87 loss

So we will make a nice profit of £36.13 if Rock Critic places 2nd or 3rd and we stand to lose £3.87 on any other outcome. A £3.87 risk to make £36.13 profit gives us effective odds of 10.34.  At the time of writing, Rock Critic is odds of 4.50 to win and odds of 1.62 to place in the top 3.  That means Rock Critic is odds of 2.53 to finish 2nd or 3rd, making this a very profitable offer in the long run.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £50.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.

* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Roachdale House at back odds of 6.00 and lay odds of 6.40.  Roachdale House was declared a non-runner, meaning I broke even on this offer. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.