It’s the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury on Saturday and you don’t want to miss this Paddy Power offer! If Total Recall or American wins the 15:00 at Newbury on Saturday, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.85 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
We need to place our qualifying bet on any horse other than Total Recall (11/2) and American (5/1).
At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional odds for Whisper in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with some actual odds after the race.
We’ll need to place our lay bet with Smarkets as Betfair have recently merged with Paddy Power.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.55…
Place £10.00 on Whisper @ 8.00 = Potential profit of £70.00
Lay £9.55 on Whisper @ 8.40 = Potential liability of £70.67
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Whisper wins | + £70.00 – £70.67 = £0.67 loss |
| Total Recall or American wins | – £10.00 + £9.35 + £7.50 (extract 75% from our £10.00 free bet) = £6.85 profit |
| Another horse wins | – £10.00 + £9.35 = £0.65 loss |
So, if Total Recall or American wins, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.85. Any other outcome and we’ll lose a maximum of £0.67. Risking £0.67 to make a profit of £6.85, gives us effective odds of 11.22. So, given that Total Recall and American are odds of 6.50 and 6.00 respectively, to win the race, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, free bets will be credited after the race has ended and will be valid for 7 days.
If you’re unsure how to extract 75% of our £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* A Genie In Abottle was available at back odds of 13.00 and lay odds of 13.00. Total Recall won the race, resulting in a profit of £7.03 on this Paddy Power offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.