Why bother looking for horse racing tips today, when you can do a bit of matched betting and make low-risk profits? Paddy Power are back with another Money Back Special on Thursday’s horse racing. If your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 14:30 Norfolk Stakes at Ascot race course, Paddy Power will refund all losing outright bets on that race as a free bet up to £50.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £36.10 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd placed finish. Having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted to keep my qualifying loss to a minimum and place my qualifying bet on the current favourite, King of Rooks. We can work out our lay stake using the matched betting calculator.
Ordinarily, I would use the Betfair Exchange to place my lay bets but Ladbrokes are running a fantastic offer on their Exchange. We can get 1% commission on the first race at Ascot every day this week.
Place £50.00 on King of Rooks @ 1.909 = Potential profit of £45.45
Lay £46.56 on King of Rooks @ 2.06 = Potential liability of £49.35
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
King of Rooks wins | +£45.45 – £49.35 = £3.90 loss |
King of Rooks places 2nd or 3rd | -£50.00 + £46.10 + £40.00 (extract 80% from our £50.00 free bet) = £36.10 profit |
King of Rooks places outside top 3 | -£50.00 + £46.10 = £3.90 loss |
So we will make a nice profit of £36.10 if King of Rooks places 2nd or 3rd and we stand to lose £3.90 on any other outcome. A £3.90 risk to make £36.10 profit gives us effective odds of 10.26, so the fact that King of Rooks is 1.25 to place in the top 3, makes this a very profitable offer in the long run.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £50.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.