The QIPCO Guineas Festival 2018 gets underway at Newmarket on Saturday and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power! Simply place a bet of up to £10.00 on the 2000 or 1000 Guineas and if the winner is trained by Aidan O’Brien, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us an overall potential profit of £13.00+ and here’s how…
Qualifying Bets:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
This offer is available on the following races at Newmarket this weekend…
Race | Time | Date |
---|---|---|
2000 Guineas | 15:35 | Saturday 5th May 2018 |
1000 Guineas | 15:35 | Sunday 6th May 2018 |
Qualifying bets must be placed from 09:00 on Monday 30th April 2018 until the start of each respective race, to be eligible.
For our qualifying bets, we need to back and lay any horse that isn’t trained by Aidan O’Brien. Having looked at the odds available for the 2000 Guineas, we could place our qualifying bet on Elarqam (5/1).
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator.
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Elarqam wins | + £50.00 – £50.80 = £0.80 loss |
Aidan O’Brien trained horse wins | – £10.00 + £9.20 + £7.50 (extract 75% from our £10.00 free bet) = £6.70 profit |
Another horse wins | – £10.00 + £9.20 = £0.80 loss |
So, if the winner is trained by Aidan O’Brien, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.70. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £0.80. Risking £0.80 to make a profit of £6.70, gives us effective odds of 9.38. So, given that Aidan O’Brien trains Gustav Klimt (5/2), Saxon Warrior (9/2) and Murillo (50/1), this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, free bets will be credited within 2 hours of the race ending and will be valid on horse racing for 7 days.
If you’re unsure how to extract 75% cash from a £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
I’ll update the following table at the weekend with a suggested bet for the 1000 Guineas…
Race | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000 Guineas | Elarqam | 6.00 | 6.40 | £0.80 | £6.70 |
1000 Guineas | Soliloquy | 7.00 | 7.20 | £0.45 | £7.05 |
* Saxon Warrior (Aidan O’Brien) won the 2000 Guineas, contributing to an overall profit of £6.25 on this Paddy Power offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.