There’s another big day of racing at Newmarket on Friday and it’s time for another Sky Bet Special! If our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the 13:50 at Newmarket, Sky Bet will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £14.84 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish.
At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional odds for Parfait in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with my actual selection after the race.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £19.23…
Place £20.00 on Parfait @ 3.25 = Potential profit of £45.00
Lay £19.23 on Parfait @ 3.40 = Potential liability of £46.15
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Parfait wins | + £45.00 – £46.15 = £1.15 loss |
Parfait places 2nd 3rd or 4th | – £20.00 + £18.84 + £16.00 (extract 80% from our £20.00 free bet) = £14.84 profit |
Parfait finishes outside top 4 | – £20.00 + £18.84 = £1.16 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £14.84 if Parfait places 2nd, 3rd or 4th and we stand to lose a maximum of £1.16 on any other outcome. Risking £1.16 to make a profit of £14.84 gives us effective odds of 13.79, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £20.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* See my Horse Racing Offers page for a full list of money back offers available today! *
* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Parfait at back odds of 3.25 and lay odds of 3.40. Parfait won the race at odds of 3.50, meaning I made a profit of £3.85, courtesy of their Best Odds Guaranteed promotion. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.