Sky Bet Offer – 13:55 Haydock (Saturday)

August 12, 2017 / Horse Racing / 2 Comments

Kick-off time (GMT): 12/08/2017 : 13:55

Potential profit
£14.75
My profit £14.18

There’s a big day of racing at Haydock today and it’s time for another Sky Bet First Race Special! If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 13:55 at Haydock, Sky Bet will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £14.75 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd place finish.

At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional odds for Zubayr in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with my actual selection after the race.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…


Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Adjust your lay stake

Min £
Max £

Lay stake required: £

Bookie
Exchange
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
= £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back
bet wins
= £
If lay
bet wins
= £

Total profit:

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £19.14…

Sky Bet Logo

Place £20.00 on Zubayr @ 4.00 = Potential profit of £60.00

smarkets white

Lay £19.14 on Zubayr @ 4.20 = Potential liability of £61.24

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Zubayr wins + £60.00 – £61.24 = £1.24 loss
Zubayr places 2nd or 3rd - £20.00 + £18.75 + £16.00 (extract 80% from our £20.00 free bet) = £14.75 profit
Zubayr finishes outside top 3 - £20.00 + £18.75 = £1.25 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £14.75 if Zubayr places 2nd or 3rd and we stand to lose a maximum of £1.25 on any other outcome. Risking £1.25 to make a profit of £14.75 gives us effective odds of 12.80, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £20.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* See my Horse Racing Offers page for a full list of money back offers available today! *

* I actually placed my qualifying bet on William Hunter at back odds of 6.00 and lay odds of 6.60. William Hunter finished 3rd, meaning I made a profit of £14.18 on this Sky Bet offer (Smarkets charged 0% commission on all markets this weekend). *

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2 Comments

  1. chris

    August 12, 2017
    / Reply

    QL on Zubayr atm is -£4.26....

    • Joshua

      August 12, 2017
      / Reply

      With these I have found that around 5 mins before starting is the optimal time. Odds drifted from 4.00 / 4.60 in Skybet / Smarkets to 4.50 / 4.50 closer to the event. But of course you have to be comfortable with calculating your stakes quickly as the odds are subject to fluctuations closer to the event.


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