It’s time for another Sky Bet free bet offer! If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 1:45 at Lingfield, Sky Bet will refund all losing outright bets on that race as a free bet up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.18 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd place finish. Having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted to keep my qualifying loss to a minimum and place my qualifying bet on Rivellino.
Place £25.00 on Rivellino @ 6.00 = Potential profit of £125.00
Lay £21.58 on Rivellino @ 7.00 = Potential liability of £129.48
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Rivellino wins | +£125.00 – £129.48 = £4.48 loss |
| Rivellino places 2nd or 3rd | -£25.00 + £20.50 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £15.50 profit |
| Rivellino places outside top 3 | -£25.00 + £20.50 = £4.50 loss |
So as things stand we will make £15.50 profit if Rivellino places 2nd or 3rd. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £4.50 on any other outcome and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying Rivellino placing in the top 3 at the betting exchange. In order to calculate our lay stake, we need to divide £4.50 by 0.95 to account for the 5% commission. This gives us a lay stake of £4.74.
Lay £4.74 on Rivellino to be placed @ 2.48 = Potential liability of £7.02
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Rivellino wins | -£4.48 – £7.02 = £11.50 loss |
| Rivellino places 2nd or 3rd | £15.50 – £7.02 = £8.48 profit |
| Rivellino places outside top 3 | -£4.50 + £4.50 = £0.00 |
We can cover the potential £11.50 loss by placing an extra £2.30 on Rivellino to win at odds of 6.00.
All of this means that if Rivellino places 2nd or 3rd, we will make a nice profit of £6.18. If Rivellino wins, we will break even and there’s no harm done. However, if Rivellino places outside the top 3, we will have lost £2.30, which I’m sure you’ll agree is a risk worth taking as the potential profit outweighs the potential loss, making this a profitable offer in the long run.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
* Rivellino went on to win the race, meaning I broke even on this offer *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £100,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.