It’s time for another Sky Bet offer! If our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the 2:00 at Sandown today, Sky Bet will refund all losing outright bets on that race as a free bet up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £9.25 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd, 3rd or 4th placed finish. Having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted to keep my qualifying loss to a minimum and place my qualifying bet on the favourite, Aigle De La See.
Place £25.00 on Aigle De La See @ 6.00 = Potential profit of £125.00
Lay £22.22 on Aigle De La See @ 6.80 = Potential liability of £128.88
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Aigle De La See wins | +£125.00 – £128.88 = £3.88 loss |
| Aigle De La See places 2nd 3rd or 4th | -£25.00 + £21.11 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £16.11 profit |
| Aigle De La See places outside top 4 | -£25.00 + £21.11 = £3.89 loss |
So as things stand we will make £16.11 profit if Aigle De La See places 2nd, 3rd or 4th. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £3.89 on any other outcome and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying Aigle De La See placing in the top 4 at the betting exchange. In order to calculate our lay stake, we need to divide £3.89 by 0.95 to account for the 5% commission. This gives us a lay stake of £4.09.
Lay £4.09 on Aigle De La See to be placed @ 2.24 = Potential liability of £5.07
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Aigle De La See wins | -£3.88 – £5.07 = £8.95 loss |
| Aigle De La See places 2nd 3rd or 4th | £16.11 – £5.07 = £11.04 profit |
| Aigle De La See places outside top 4 | -£3.89 + £3.89 = £0.00 |
We can cover the potential £8.95 loss by placing an extra £1.79 on Aigle De La See to win at odds of 6.00.
All of this means that if Aigle De La See places 2nd, 3rd or 4th, we will make a nice profit of £9.25. If Aigle De La See wins, we will break even and there’s no harm done. However, if Aigle De La See places outside the top 4, we will have lost £1.79, which I’m sure you’ll agree is a risk worth taking as the potential profit far outweighs the potential loss, making this a profitable offer in the long run.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £100,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.