Stan James Offer – Irish Gold Cup 2017

There’s a big day of racing at Leopardstown today and you don’t want to miss this Stan James offer! Back the winner of the Irish Gold Cup today (16:00 Leopardstown) and get a free bet to the same stake (up to £25.00) on that horse to win any race at the Cheltenham Festival 2017. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £21.06 and here’s how…

Qualifying bet:

Qualifying bets must be placed between 09:00 on Thursday 9th February 2017 and 15:40 on Sunday 12th February 2017, to be eligible.

If our selection wins, Stan James will give us a free bet, equal to our stake, up to a maximum of £25.00. The free bet will be placed as cash on the winning selection to win any race at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival only. Any returns from the free bet will therefore be paid inclusive of the stake. By using straightforward matched betting, this should allow us to extract around 90% of our free bet as cash.

If our horse doesn’t run at Cheltenham, our free bet would be void and we’d receive £25.00 cash into our account instead. If our selected horse runs twice at Cheltenham, the qualifying race will be the first race during the Cheltenham Festival. The free bet will be placed at the SP after the 48 hour declarations are made.

Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Don Poli.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using the following matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.04…

stanjames

Place £25.00 on Don Poli @ 4.50 = Potential profit of £87.50

smarkets white

Lay £24.04 on Don Poli @ 4.70 = Potential liability of £88.94

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the two outcomes…

Don Poli wins + £87.50 – £88.94 + £22.50 (extract 90% from £25.00 free bet) = £21.06 profit
Don Poli doesn’t win – £25.00 + £23.56 (£24.04 minus 2% commission) = £1.44 loss

So, if Don Poli wins the Irish Gold Cup 2017, we’ll make a profit of £21.06. If Don Poli doesn’t win, we’ll make a loss of £1.44. Risking £1.44 to make a profit of £21.06, gives us effective odds of 15.63, so given the fact that Don Poli is only odds of 4.50 to win, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

NOTE: For those of you that would prefer to lock in a guaranteed profit on this offer, you could simply add 0.90 (90% extracted from your £25.00 free bet) to your back odds of 4.50, to give you your effective odds of 5.40. This will enable you to make a guaranteed profit of £3.27. It’s more profitable in the long run, to do this offer as set out above. We are effectively risking our £3.27 guaranteed profit to make a profit of £21.06, which gives us effective odds of 6.44, which are higher than the actual odds of 4.50 for Don Poli to win.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.