Kick-off time (GMT): 27/11/2016 : 18:00
The Jaguars face Buffalo Bills in the NFL tonight and 188BET are getting in on the action. If LeSean McCoy scores a touchdown in Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills, 188BET will refund losing bets on all pre-match markets as a free bet, up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £21.77 and here’s how…
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
As with all player-specific promotions, it’s a good idea to wait until the starting line-ups have been announced, before placing our qualifying bets.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Friday 25th November 2016 and 18:00 on Sunday 27th November 2016, to be eligible.
There is no way of making this offer risk-free so only get involved if you’re comfortable with your qualifying loss.
Only losing bets will be refunded in the event that LeSean McCoy scores a touchdown, so we need to place our qualifying bet on a selection that we don’t think will win. We also need to place it at tight odds, in order to minimise our qualifying loss.
LeSean McCoy plays for Buffalo Bills, who are clear favourites to win the game. I’ll therefore be looking to place my qualifying bet on Jacksonville Jaguars. At the time of writing, the lay odds are poor, so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with my actual odds after the game.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.49…
Place £25.00 on Jacksonville Jaguars @ 3.74 = Potential profit of £68.50
Lay £23.49 on Jacksonville Jaguars @ 4.00 = Potential liability of £70.48
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
|Jaguars win||+ £68.50 – £70.48 = £1.98 loss|
|Jaguars don't win and McCoy scores a touchdown||- £25.00 + £23.02 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £21.77 profit|
|Jaguars don't win and McCoy doesn't score a touchdown||- £25.00 + £23.02 = £1.98 loss|
So, if the Jaguars don’t win and LeSean McCoy scores a touchdown, we will make a nice profit of £21.77 on this 188BET offer. If the Jaguars do win or LeSean McCoy doesn’t score a touchdown, we’ll have made a loss of £1.98. Risking £1.98 to make a profit of £21.77, gives us effective odds of 11.99. Given that the odds of LeSean McCoy scoring a touchdown are only 1.615 with most bookmakers, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need Jacksonville Jaguars not to win.
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.
To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘LSM25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to firstname.lastname@example.org using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Monday 28th November 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted and will be valid for 30 days.
* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Jacksonville Jaguars at back odds of 3.74 and lay odds of 4.30. Buffalo Bills won the game 28-21, with LeSean McCoy scoring two touchdowns, meaning I made a profit of £20.16 on this 188BET offer. *