188BET Offer – Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills

November 27, 2016 / NFL / 12 Comments

Kick-off time (GMT): 27/11/2016 : 18:00

Potential profit
£21.77
My profit £20.16

The Jaguars face Buffalo Bills in the NFL tonight and 188BET are getting in on the action. If LeSean McCoy scores a touchdown in Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills, 188BET will refund losing bets on all pre-match markets as a free bet, up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £21.77 and here’s how…

jacksonville-jaguars-v-buffalo-bills-188bet-offer

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

As with all player-specific promotions, it’s a good idea to wait until the starting line-ups have been announced, before placing our qualifying bets.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Friday 25th November 2016 and 18:00 on Sunday 27th November 2016, to be eligible.

There is no way of making this offer risk-free so only get involved if you’re comfortable with your qualifying loss.

Only losing bets will be refunded in the event that LeSean McCoy scores a touchdown, so we need to place our qualifying bet on a selection that we don’t think will win. We also need to place it at tight odds, in order to minimise our qualifying loss.

LeSean McCoy plays for Buffalo Bills, who are clear favourites to win the game. I’ll therefore be looking to place my qualifying bet on Jacksonville Jaguars. At the time of writing, the lay odds are poor, so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with my actual odds after the game.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…


Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Adjust your lay stake

Min £
Max £

Lay stake required: £

Bookie
Exchange
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
= £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back
bet wins
= £
If lay
bet wins
= £

Total profit:

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.49…

188bet

Place £25.00 on Jacksonville Jaguars @ 3.74 = Potential profit of £68.50

smarkets white

Lay £23.49 on Jacksonville Jaguars @ 4.00 = Potential liability of £70.48

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Jaguars win + £68.50 – £70.48 = £1.98 loss
Jaguars don't win and McCoy scores a touchdown - £25.00 + £23.02 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £21.77 profit
Jaguars don't win and McCoy doesn't score a touchdown - £25.00 + £23.02 = £1.98 loss

So, if the Jaguars don’t win and LeSean McCoy scores a touchdown, we will make a nice profit of £21.77 on this 188BET offer. If the Jaguars do win or LeSean McCoy doesn’t score a touchdown, we’ll have made a loss of £1.98. Risking £1.98 to make a profit of £21.77, gives us effective odds of 11.99. Given that the odds of LeSean McCoy scoring a touchdown are only 1.615 with most bookmakers, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need Jacksonville Jaguars not to win.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.

To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘LSM25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Monday 28th November 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted and will be valid for 30 days.

* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Jacksonville Jaguars at back odds of 3.74 and lay odds of 4.30. Buffalo Bills won the game 28-21, with LeSean McCoy scoring two touchdowns, meaning I made a profit of £20.16 on this 188BET offer. *

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12 Comments

  1. Ian

    November 27, 2016
    / Reply

    Good offer. Very good chance McCoy scores. Probably the best offer that 188 have done in a while

    • Fred

      November 27, 2016
      / Reply

      Is McCoy out with thumb injury? Or is it confirmed he is playing?

      • Ian

        November 27, 2016
        / Reply

        PLaying, and scored 2 TDs so far!

        • Fred

          November 28, 2016
          / Reply

          I unfortunately didn't bet on Bills to win as felt was too much of a QLoss due to bad odds - missed out </3

          • Matt

            Matt

            November 28, 2016
            / Reply

            It was a higher qualifying loss Fred but the odds on McCoy scoring a touchdown were so short it meant our effective odds were really good. You didn't necessarily make the wrong call though, as it's important that you only do offers where you're comfortable with your qualifying loss.

          • Martin

            November 28, 2016
            / Reply

            I did the same :(

  2. tchaitcho

    November 28, 2016
    / Reply

    How do you extract 95%? are these bets treated as Stake Returned or just straight cash refund? Also any idea how long it takes 188 to make the payment.

    • Pete

      November 28, 2016
      / Reply

      Just leave it in and keep bashing it on their offers...

    • Matt

      Matt

      November 28, 2016
      / Reply

      It just needs rolling over once at odds of 1.90 or greater.

  3. Rick

    December 1, 2016
    / Reply

    I left this because to me it stands out a mile as being a matched bet. Never betting on nfl but then betting on the underdog in a random nfl game...right. I know the importance of mug betting but I think some offers are best left alone.

    • Rick

      December 1, 2016
      / Reply

      Would like to add Matt this probably comes across as not grateful. I do very much appreciate the effort you put into this site Matt, it's great. Can't believe I actually used to pay for a matched betting website. Keep up the great work!

      • Matt

        Matt

        December 2, 2016
        / Reply

        Thanks Rick, will do mate.


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