Betfred Offer – 2017 Super Bowl 51

It’s the Super Bowl 51 tonight and Betfred are getting in on the action! Simply bet £10.00+ on New England Patriots @ Atlanta Falcons and Betfred will give us a £5.00 free bet to be used in play on the game. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £3.10 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 09:00 and 22:00 on Sunday 5th February 2017, at odds of 1.50 (1/2) or greater, to be eligible.

Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Atlanta Falcons in the ‘Outright Match’ market.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.79…

Betfred Logo

Place £10.00 on Atlanta Falcons @ 2.35 = Potential profit of £13.50

smarkets white

Lay £9.79 on Atlanta Falcons @ 2.42 = Potential liability of £13.90

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Atlanta Falcons win + £13.50 – £13.90 = £0.40 loss
Atlanta Falcons don’t win – £10.00 + £9.60 (£9.79 minus 2% commission) = £0.40 loss

So, regardless of the result of the match, we’ll lose £0.40 in qualifying for our £5.00 free in play bet.

Free Bet:

Our £5.00 free bet will be credited by 23:00 tonight (Sunday 5th February 2017) and will be valid until 09:00 on Monday 6th February 2017.

It’s impossible to know what odds will be available until the match has kicked off but by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 70% of the £5.00 free bet as cash, so £3.50. If we take into account our qualifying loss of £0.40, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £3.10!

Extracting profit from our free bet can be a little tricky when betting in play. If you place your free bet and then something happens in the game that changes the lay odds, it will affect your profit one way or the other.

Having said that, there are plenty of stoppages in NFL, so we should look to get our bets on then, so that the odds don’t fluctuate as much as when the game is live.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.