It’s the 50th edition of the NFL Super Bowl on Sunday night and you don’t want to miss this Betway offer! Place a Money Line bet on the Super Bowl and if our team loses by 13 points or more, Betway will refund our stake as a free bet up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £17.70 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
We need to place our qualifying Money Line bet on either the Carolina Panthers or the Denver Broncos. Given that we need our selection to lose by 13 or more points, it makes sense to place our qualifying bet on the Denver Broncos as they have the longest odds.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.16…
Place £25.00 on Denver Broncos @ 2.90 = Potential profit of £47.50
Lay £23.16 on Denver Broncos @ 3.15 = Potential liability of £49.80
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| Denver Broncos win | + £47.50 – £49.80 = £2.30 loss |
| Denver Broncos lose by 13 or more points | – £25.00 + £22.70 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £17.70 profit |
| Denver Broncos lose by less than 13 points | – £25.00 + £22.70 = £2.30 loss |
So we will make a nice profit of £17.70 if Denver Broncos lose by 13 or more points, and we stand to lose £2.30 on any other outcome. This gives us effective odds of 8.70, which I’m sure you’ll agree makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.