Betfred Offer – X Factor Elimination

October 28, 2016 / Other Sports / 5 Comments

Kick-off time (GMT): 30/10/2016 : 20:00

Guaranteed profit
£2.94

It’s Fright Night on the X Factor this week and Betfred are getting into the spirit of things (pun intended) with a Halloween-themed Ghost Train promotion! Place a single bet of at least £10.00 on the X Factor 4th Elimination market and Betfred will give us a £5.00 free bet. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £2.94 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 09:00 on Friday 28th October 2016 and 20:00 on Sunday 30th October 2016), at odds of 1.50 (1/2) or greater, to be eligible.

Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Ryan Lawrie.

We’ll need to place our lay bet on the Betfair Exchange for this offer.

We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…


Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Adjust your lay stake

Min £
Max £

Lay stake required: £

Bookie
Exchange
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
= £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back
bet wins
= £
If lay
bet wins
= £

Total profit:

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.41…

Betfred Logo

Place £10.00 on Ryan Lawrie @ 4.00 = Potential profit of £30.00

betfair

Lay £9.41 on Ryan Lawrie @ 4.30 = Potential liability of £31.06

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Ryan Lawrie is eliminated + £30.00 – £31.06 = £1.06 loss
Ryan Lawrie is not eliminated - £10.00 + £8.94 (£9.41 minus 5% commission) = £1.06 loss

So, regardless of the outcome, we will lose £1.06 in qualifying for our £5.00 free bet.

Free Bet:

Our £5.00 free bet will be credited within 24 hours of our qualifying bet being settled and will be valid for 7 days.

By using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 80% of the £5.00 free bet as cash, so £4.00. If we take into account our qualifying loss of £1.06, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £2.94 on this Betfred offer!

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5 Comments

  1. jd

    October 28, 2016
    / Reply

    Where is this offer on their site? Can't see it currently.

    • jd

      October 28, 2016
      / Reply

      Don't worry, I found it under the ghost train promo section. At first glance that looked like just a casino and slots offer.

  2. alfonso

    October 28, 2016
    / Reply

    Odds are now in 4 back/5 lay for Ryan Lawrie (2.32 of loss) and 2.75/3.25 (1.84 of loss) for Saara Aalto. I'm not sure if it deserves my time.

  3. Stellasioux

    October 29, 2016
    / Reply

    I can't find it, I have Opted in but there is no Link to bet and I can't find it on the site, I find Betfred Frustrating

    • Ryan

      October 29, 2016
      / Reply

      It is currently bugged for me, but it is under Sports-> TV Shows/ Specials


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