Kick-off time (GMT): 30/10/2016 : 20:00
It’s Fright Night on the X Factor this week and Betfred are getting into the spirit of things (pun intended) with a Halloween-themed Ghost Train promotion! Place a single bet of at least £10.00 on the X Factor 4th Elimination market and Betfred will give us a £5.00 free bet. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £2.94 and here’s how…
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 09:00 on Friday 28th October 2016 and 20:00 on Sunday 30th October 2016), at odds of 1.50 (1/2) or greater, to be eligible.
Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Ryan Lawrie.
We’ll need to place our lay bet on the Betfair Exchange for this offer.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.41…
Place £10.00 on Ryan Lawrie @ 4.00 = Potential profit of £30.00
Lay £9.41 on Ryan Lawrie @ 4.30 = Potential liability of £31.06
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
|Ryan Lawrie is eliminated||+ £30.00 – £31.06 = £1.06 loss|
|Ryan Lawrie is not eliminated||- £10.00 + £8.94 (£9.41 minus 5% commission) = £1.06 loss|
So, regardless of the outcome, we will lose £1.06 in qualifying for our £5.00 free bet.
Our £5.00 free bet will be credited within 24 hours of our qualifying bet being settled and will be valid for 7 days.
By using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 80% of the £5.00 free bet as cash, so £4.00. If we take into account our qualifying loss of £1.06, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £2.94 on this Betfred offer!