Potential
£21.62
 
Guaranteed
- -
 
My Profit
£-2.13

188BET Offer – Wigan Warriors v Hull FC


Posted by Matt (administrator) Fri, Jul 29, 2016 03:07pm Matt
Start Time: 29/07/2016 20:00

Wigan Warriors face Hull FC in the Challenge Cup Semi-Finals tonight and 188BET are getting in on the action. If Sam Tomkins scores a try in Wigan Warriors v Hull FC, 188BET will refund losing bets on all pre-match markets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £21.62 and here’s how…

188BET Offer - Wigan Warriors v Hull FC

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

As with all player-specific promotions, it’s a good idea to wait until the starting line-ups have been announced, before placing our qualifying bets.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 and 19:45 today (Friday 29th July 2016), to be eligible.

We need to place our qualifying bet on something with tight back and lay odds in order to minimise our qualifying losses. Having looked at the odds available and due to the fact that Sam Tomkins plays for Wigan Warriors, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a Hull FC win in the ‘1 X 2’ market.

At the time of writing, the match isn’t available on Smarkets, although it may get added later today. If not, we can lay our bet at Betfair or the Ladbrokes Exchange.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.07…

188bet

Place £25.00 on Hull FC @ 2.07 = Potential profit of £26.75

betfair logo

Lay £24.07 on Hull FC @ 2.20 = Potential liability of £28.88

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Hull FC win + £26.75 – £28.88 = £2.13 loss
Hull FC don't win and Tomkins scores a try - £25.00 + £22.87 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £21.62 profit
Hull FC don't win and Tomkins doesn't score a try - £25.00 + £22.87 = £2.13 loss

So, if Hull FC don’t win and Sam Tomkins scores a try, we’ll make a nice profit of £21.62 on this 188BET offer. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £2.13. Risking £2.13 to make a profit of £21.62, gives us effective odds of 11.15. Given that the odds of Sam Tomkins scoring a try are only 1.833 with most bookmakers, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need Hull FC not to win.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.

To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘ST25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Saturday 30th July 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted and will be valid for 30 days.

Comments


  1. James

    Looks very interesting!

Leave a Reply


Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *