Kick-off time (GMT): 29/07/2016 : 20:00
Wigan Warriors face Hull FC in the Challenge Cup Semi-Finals tonight and 188BET are getting in on the action. If Sam Tomkins scores a try in Wigan Warriors v Hull FC, 188BET will refund losing bets on all pre-match markets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £21.62 and here’s how…
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
As with all player-specific promotions, it’s a good idea to wait until the starting line-ups have been announced, before placing our qualifying bets.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 and 19:45 today (Friday 29th July 2016), to be eligible.
We need to place our qualifying bet on something with tight back and lay odds in order to minimise our qualifying losses. Having looked at the odds available and due to the fact that Sam Tomkins plays for Wigan Warriors, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a Hull FC win in the ‘1 X 2’ market.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.07…
Place £25.00 on Hull FC @ 2.07 = Potential profit of £26.75
Lay £24.07 on Hull FC @ 2.20 = Potential liability of £28.88
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
|Hull FC win||+ £26.75 – £28.88 = £2.13 loss|
|Hull FC don't win and Tomkins scores a try||- £25.00 + £22.87 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £21.62 profit|
|Hull FC don't win and Tomkins doesn't score a try||- £25.00 + £22.87 = £2.13 loss|
So, if Hull FC don’t win and Sam Tomkins scores a try, we’ll make a nice profit of £21.62 on this 188BET offer. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £2.13. Risking £2.13 to make a profit of £21.62, gives us effective odds of 11.15. Given that the odds of Sam Tomkins scoring a try are only 1.833 with most bookmakers, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need Hull FC not to win.
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.
To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘ST25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to email@example.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Saturday 30th July 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted and will be valid for 30 days.