It’s the Challenge Cup Final 2018 on Saturday afternoon and SportPesa are getting in on the action! Simply place a bet on any market for Catalans Dragons v Warrington Wolves and if Josh Charnley scores a try, SportPesa will refund losing stakes as a bonus, up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £12.89 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- The minimum qualifying stake is £5.00.
- Qualifying bets must be placed between 10:00 on Friday 24th August 2018 and 15:00 (kick-off) on Saturday 25th August 2018.
- We must place our bet at odds of 2.00 (evens) or greater.
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Catalans Dragons in the ‘1X2 Full Time‘ market.
At the time of writing, laying our bet at Betfair gives us the smallest qualifying loss.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £17.78…
Place £20.00 on Catalans Dragons @ 2.80 = Potential profit of £36.00
Lay £17.78 on Catalans Dragons @ 3.20 = Potential liability of £39.11
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Catalans Dragons win | + £36.00 – £39.11 = £3.11 loss |
| Catalans Dragons don’t win | – £20.00 + £16.89 (£17.78 minus 5% commission) = £3.11 loss |
So, regardless of the outcome, we’ll lose £3.11 in qualifying for our potential bonus.
Bonus:
If Josh Charnley scores a try for Warrington Wolves and Catalans Dragons don’t win, we’ll receive a £20.00 bonus within 48 hours of our qualifying bet being settled. Bonuses will be valid for 5 days.
The bonus stake is not included in any returns, so we can treat it exactly the same as a stake not returned free bet. By using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 80% cash from our £20.00 bonus, so £16.00.
If we take into account our qualifying loss of £3.11, this gives us a potential profit of £12.89 on this SportPesa offer! Risking £3.11 to make a profit of £12.89, gives us effective odds of 5.14. So, given that Josh Charnley is odds of just 1.667 (4/6) to score a try, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
* Catalans Dragons won the match 20-14 and Josh Charnley failed to score a try, resulting in a loss of £3.11 on this SportPesa offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.