The Australian Open 2018 is in full swing and the bookies are getting in on the action! There are some great offers available for the duration of the tournament, so provided we minimise our qualifying losses, we stand a great chance of making some big profits and here’s how…
Available Offers:
| Bookie | Offer |
|---|---|
| 188BET | (M&W) Money back as a free bet (up to £25.00) if your selection wins the first set but loses the match |
| 21Bet | (M) Money back as a free bet (up to £25.00) if your selection gets knocked out in a 5th set |
| BetMcLean | (M) Money back as a free bet (up to £25.00) if your selection loses in five sets |
| Betway | (M&W) Double winnings if your selection loses the first set but wins the match |
| BoyleSports | (M&W) Double winnings if your selection loses the first set but wins the match |
| Paddy Power | (M) Men’s Singles bets paid as a winner if our selection goes two sets up |
| Sun Bets | (M) Men’s Singles bets paid as a winner if our selection goes two sets up |
| Unibet | (M) Money back in cash (up to £100.00) if selection leads by two sets and loses |
WARNING: Please be aware of the retirement rules regarding tennis bets. In the event of a player retiring, if the bookmaker has different rules to the betting exchange, it could leave you exposed to big losses. Betfair and Smarkets have the same retirement rules, in that if the first set of a match is not completed, all bets related to the match will be voided. If the bookmaker has different terms to the betting exchange, you may want to consider dutching your bet with a bookmaker who shares the same retirement rules.
Qualifying Bets:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
The strategy is the same for all eight offers. We just need to select players with tight back and lay odds in order to minimise our qualifying losses and hope we hit the money back/double winnings triggers.
For the Paddy Power, Sun Bets and Unibet offers, we need to hope our selection goes two sets up and then loses, so that both our back and lay bets win.
The following example is for the Betway offer. Having looked at the odds available for John Millman v Borna Coric, we could place our qualifying bet on John Millman.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Betfair as they have great liquidity and the site is really easy to use.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £25.58…
Place £25.00 on John Millman @ 2.20 = Potential profit of £30.00
Lay £25.58 on John Millman @ 2.20= Potential liability of £30.69
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Millman wins having won the first set | + £30.00 – £30.69 = £0.69 loss |
| Millman wins having lost the first set | + £30.00 – £30.69 + £18.75 (extract 75% from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.06 profit |
| Millman doesn’t win | – £25.00 + £24.30 = £0.70 loss |
So, if John Millman wins the match having lost the first set, we’ll make a nice profit of £18.06. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a maximum loss of £0.70. Risking £0.70 to make a profit of £18.06, gives us effective odds of 26.80, which I’m sure you’ll agree makes this is a profitable offer in the long run.
I’ll update the following tables with some actual selections after the matches have been played…
188BET Offer
| Match | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan v Putintseva | Bogdan | 2.12 | 2.14 | £0.91 | £22.84 |
| Dimitrov v Rublev | Dimitrov | 1.45 | 1.50 | £1.25 | £22.50 |
| Berdych v Del Potro | Del Potro | 1.64 | 1.72 | £1.68 | £22.07 |
| Chung v A. Zverev | A. Zverev | 1.64 | 1.72 | £1.68 | £22.07 |
| Barty v Osaka | Barty | 1.37 | 1.42 | £1.25 | £22.50 |
| Kerber v Sharapova | Kerber | 1.80 | 1.88 | £1.63 | £22.11 |
| Pera v Strycova | Pera | 4.333 | 4.30 | £0.79 | £22.96 |
| Carreno-Busta v Cilic | Cilic | 1.24 | 1.26 | £0.66 | £23.08 |
| Dimitrov v Kyrgios | Dimitrov | 2.32 | 2.40 | £1.55 | £22.19 |
| Fognini v Berdych | Berdych | 1.36 | 1.39 | £0.89 | £22.85 |
| Halep v Pliskova | Halep | 1.82 | 1.86 | £1.12 | £22.63 |
| Halep v Kerber | Halep | 2.21 | 2.26 | £1.25 | £22.50 |
* Overall profit of £9.09 on this 188BET offer. *
BetMcLean Offer
| Match | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzi v Dzumhur | Dzumhur | 1.833 | 1.88 | £1.20 | £17.53 |
| Garcia-Lopez v Paire | Paire | 1.45 | 1.50 | £1.25 | £17.50 |
| Benneteau v Daniel | Benneteau | 1.571 | 1.62 | £1.23 | £17.51 |
| Querrey v Lopez | Querrey | 1.727 | 1.79 | £1.42 | £17.32 |
| Chung v Medvedev | Chung | 1.45 | 1.47 | £0.74 | £18.00 |
| Dimitrov v Rublev | Dimitrov | 1.45 | 1.50 | £1.25 | £17.50 |
| Berdych v Del Potro | Del Potro | 1.65 | 1.72 | £1.54 | £17.21 |
| Chung v A. Zverev | A. Zverev | 1.65 | 1.72 | £1.54 | £17.21 |
| Fognini v Berdych | Berdych | 1.36 | 1.39 | £0.89 | £17.85 |
* Overall profit of £7.69 on this BetMcLean offer. *
Betway Offer
| Match | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millman v Coric | Millman | 2.20 | 2.20 | £0.69 | £18.06 |
| Krunic v Kontaveit | Kontaveit | 1.909 | 1.93 | £0.88 | £16.17 |
| Golubic v Bondarenko | Golubic | 1.909 | 1.95 | £1.14 | £15.92 |
| McDonald v Ymer | McDonald | 2.00 | 2.02 | £0.88 | £17.87 |
| Cirstea v Diyas | Cirstea | 2.10 | 2.20 | £1.81 | £16.95 |
| Hercog v Alexandrova | Hercog | 1.727 | 1.78 | £1.29 | £12.36 |
| Berrettini v Mannarino | Mannarino | 1.30 | 1.31 | £0.49 | £5.14 |
| Querrey v Lopez | Querrey | 1.727 | 1.79 | £1.42 | £12.22 |
| Sonego v Haase | Sonego | 4.00 | 3.90 | £0.31 | £18.44 |
| Donaldson v Ramos-Vinolas | Donaldson | 1.80 | 1.85 | £1.25 | £13.75 |
| Donskoy v Mayer | Mayer | 2.30 | 2.34 | £1.15 | £17.61 |
| Verdasco v Marterer | Marterer | 4.00 | 4.10 | £1.53 | £17.22 |
| Bogdan v Putintseva | Bogdan | 2.10 | 2.14 | £1.14 | £17.62 |
| Davis v Petkovic | Davis | 2.20 | 2.20 | £0.70 | £18.06 |
| Kanepi v Suarez Navarro | Suarez Navarro | 3.00 | 2.98 | £0.68 | £18.07 |
| Berdych v Del Potro | Del Potro | 1.667 | 1.72 | £1.29 | £11.22 |
| Chung v A. Zverev | Chung | 2.30 | 2.42 | £1.96 | £16.81 |
| Dimitrov v Kyrgios | Dimitrov | 2.40 | 2.40 | £0.74 | £18.01 |
| Djokovic v Chung | Chung | 4.333 | 4.30 | £0.78 | £17.97 |
| Strycova v Pliskova | Pliskova | 1.333 | 1.34 | £0.47 | £5.78 |
| Nadal v Cilic | Cilic | 4.50 | 4.50 | £0.99 | £17.77 |
| Halep v Pliskova | Halep | 1.80 | 1.86 | £1.37 | £13.63 |
* Overall profit of £95.85 on this Betway offer. *
BoyleSports Offer
| Match | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kohlschreiber v Niskioka | Nishioka | 3.75 | 3.75 | £0.74 | £40.51 |
| Hercog v Alexandrova | Hercog | 1.727 | 1.78 | £1.03 | £9.88 |
| Querrey v Lopez | Querrey | 1.727 | 1.79 | £1.14 | £9.77 |
| Lucic-Baroni v Sasnowich | Sasnowich | 1.615 | 1.62 | £0.45 | £8.78 |
| Berdych v Del Potro | Del Potro | 1.667 | 1.72 | £1.04 | £8.98 |
| Thiem v Mannarino | Mannarino | 3.50 | 3.60 | £1.27 | £36.23 |
| Hsieh v Radwanska | Hsieh | 4.00 | 4.10 | £1.22 | £43.78 |
| Kerber v Sharapova | Sharapova | 2.10 | 2.16 | £1.09 | £15.41 |
| Pera v Strycova | Pera | 4.20 | 4.30 | £1.23 | £46.80 |
| Dimitrov v Kyrgios | Dimitrov | 2.375 | 2.40 | £0.79 | £19.84 |
| Halep v Pliskova | Halep | 1.80 | 1.86 | £1.10 | £10.90 |
| Halep v Wozniacki | Halep | 1.727 | 1.74 | £0.59 | £10.33 |
* Overall loss of £11.69 on this BoyleSports offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.