Wimbledon 2016 moves into it’s second week today and you don’t want to miss this Betfair Sportsbook offer. Place a bet on any Wimbledon Singles Match Odds market and if our selection loses the 1st set, but wins the match, Betfair will double our odds. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £100.00+ and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
In order to be eligible for this offer, our £25.00 (max.) qualifying bet must be placed pre-match on the Match Odds market of any Men’s or Women’s Singles matches. If our selection loses the 1st set but goes on to win the match, Betfair will double our odds. Winnings will be paid in cash at the normal price and then topped up to double odds with free bets. So, for example, if we place £25.00 on a winning selection at odds of 2.00 (evens), we would receive £50.00 in cash and £25.00 in free bets.
Having looked at the odds available for today’s play, I’ve opted to place one of my qualifying bets on Marin Cilic beating Kei Nishikori.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.89…
Place £25.00 on Cilic @ 2.25 = Potential profit of £31.25
Lay £24.89 on Cilic @ 2.28 = Potential liability of £31.86
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Cilic wins having won the 1st set | + £31.25 – £31.86 = £0.61 loss |
| Cilic wins having lost the 1st set | + £31.25 – £31.86 + £25.00 (80% extracted from £31.25 free bet) = £24.39 profit |
| Cilic doesn’t win | – £25.00 + £24.39 = £0.61 loss |
So, if Marin Cilic loses the first set and goes on to win the match, we’ll make a nice profit of £24.39 on this Betfair offer! Any other outcome and we’ll have made a small loss of £0.61. Risking £0.61 to make £24.39 profit, gives us effective odds of 40.98, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
This offer is available on all Wimbledon Singles matches, giving us a potential overall profit of £100.00+!
I’ll update the following table throughout the week with my selections…
| Match | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Effective Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cilic v Nishikori | Cilic | 2.25 | 2.28 | 40.98 | -£0.61 |
| Querrey v Mahut | Mahut | 1.666 | 1.70 | 19.03 | -£0.70 |
| Tomic v Pouille | Pouille | 3.40 | 3.55 | 34.29 | -£1.40 |
| Vesely v Berdych | Vesely | 5.00 | 5.00 | 200.00 | -£0.40 |
| Gasquet v Tsonga | Gasquet | 1.85 | 1.95 | 11.18 | £0.00 |
| Radwanska v Cibulkova | Radwanska | 1.727 | 1.77 | 17.74 | -£0.82 |
| Halep v Keys | Keys | 1.80 | 1.86 | 15.53 | -£1.03 |
| Shvedova v Safarova | Shvedova | 2.10 | 2.18 | 18.64 | -£1.18 |
| V. Williams v Navarro | V. Williams | 1.75 | 1.76 | 41.67 | -£0.36 |
| Querrey v Raonic | Querrey | 3.90 | 4.20 | 27.10 | -£2.14 |
| Berdych v Pouille | Pouille | 4.50 | 4.80 | 36.08 | -£1.94 |
| Raonic v Federer | Raonic | 2.45 | 2.56 | 21.17 | -£1.37 |
| Williams v Kerber | Kerber | 4.00 | 4.40 | 22.81 | -£2.63 |
| Raonic v Murray | Raonic | 3.90 | 4.30 | 21.64 | -£2.68 |
Free bets will be credited within 12 hours of each match ending and will be valid for 48 hours. Free bet stakes are not returned with any winnings.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of any free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* As you can see from the table above, after a few near misses, I made a total loss of £17.26 on this Betfair offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.