Paddy Power Offer – US Open 2016

August 29, 2016 / Tennis / 10 Comments

Kick-off time (GMT): 29/08/2016 : 16:00

Potential profit
£22.95
My profit £19.20

The US Open 2016 gets underway today and you don’t want to miss this Paddy Power offer! Place a £25.00 bet on the Men’s US Open Outright Winner market and Paddy Power will give us a £5.00 free bet for every singles match our selection wins. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £22.95 and here’s how…

Paddy Power Offer - US Open 2016

Qualifying Bets:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed before the tournament gets underway at 16:00 today (Monday 29th August 2016), to be eligible.

It’s entirely up to you who you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on the favourite, Novak Djokovic.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

You can find the US Open Outright Winner market by entering ‘US Open 2016 Men’s Winner’ in the search box at the top of the homepage or by using the following link trail…

Smarkets > Tennis > US Open 2016 > US Open 2016 Men’s Winner

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…


Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Adjust your lay stake

Min £
Max £

Lay stake required: £

Bookie
Exchange
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
= £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back
bet wins
= £
If lay
bet wins
= £

Total profit:

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £22.15…

paddypower logo

Place £25.00 on Novak Djokovic @ 2.25 = Potential profit of £31.25

smarkets white

Lay £22.15 on Novak Djokovic @ 2.56 = Potential liability of £34.55

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Djokovic wins + £31.25 – £34.55 = £3.30 loss
Djokovic doesn't win - £25.00 + £21.70 (£22.15 minus 2% commission) = £3.30 loss

So, regardless of who wins the tournament, we will lose £3.30 in qualifying for our potential free bets.

Free Bets:

For every singles match that Novak Djokovic wins, we will receive a £5.00 free bet by 12:00 the following day. Free bets will be valid on tennis matches for 48 hours. Free bet stakes are not returned with any winnings.

If Novak Djokovic wins all 7 of his potential matches, we will receive £35.00 in free bets, from which we should be able to extract around 75% as cash, so £26.25. If we take into account our qualifying loss of £3.30, this gives us a potential profit of £22.95 on this Paddy Power offer!

* Novak Djokovic won 6 matches before losing to Stan Wawrinka in the Final, meaning I made a profit of £19.20 on this Paddy Power offer. *

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10 Comments

  1. Henry

    August 29, 2016
    / Reply

    I can only find Viktor Troicki on the market @ Smarkets, am I doing something wrong?
    Cheers :)

    • Matt

      Matt

      August 29, 2016
      / Reply

      You need to click to enter the market Henry and then you will see the full list of players.

      • Henry

        August 29, 2016
        / Reply

        Ah of course :-)
        Thanks!

  2. Bob47474

    August 29, 2016
    / Reply

    Doing the same as I've done with Aguero £12.50 e/w on Djokovic, only need him to win 3 games and place to break even. He should do that, worth a bit of a punt I think, stops so much money being tied up then.

  3. Rick

    August 30, 2016
    / Reply

    I always use oddschecker to compare prices. Andy Murray was 3.00 with PP and good value but smarkets was showing 3.35 for the lay. I left it for a while and looked later and was showing 2.98 for the lay.
    Overall the bet cost me 0.17p
    Lets hope he has a good tournament!

  4. Jay

    August 30, 2016
    / Reply

    Hi is this offer still running? I'm on PP now and I can bet on the winner outright, but there's no mention of bet £25 win £5 free bet offer? I'm reluctant to bet until I see this lol

    • Matt

      Matt

      August 30, 2016
      / Reply

      As mentioned in the post Jay, this offer ended when the tournament began at 16:00 yesterday.

  5. j

    August 30, 2016
    / Reply

    i can't see this offer on the website, has it ended?

  6. Andreas

    August 31, 2016
    / Reply

    I cannot find full condition of this offer now after the start of the tournament. When I backed 2 players, should I receive a free bet for both of them winning their matches, or only the first bet counts?

    • Matt

      Matt

      September 1, 2016
      / Reply

      I'm not sure Andreas, you would have to ask them the question. Looking at my post, it's probably only available on your first bet.


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