The US Open 2017 is in full swing and the bookies are getting in on the action! There are some great offers available for the duration of the tournament, so provided we minimise our qualifying losses, we stand a great chance of making some big profits and here’s how…
Available Offers:
| Bookie | Offer |
|---|---|
| 10Bet | (M) Money back as a free bet (up to £20.00) if your selection loses in five sets |
| 188BET | (M&W) Money back as a free bet (up to £25.00) if your selection wins the 1st set and loses the match |
| BetMcLean | (M) Money back as a free bet (up to £25.00) if your selection loses in five sets |
| Betway | (M&W) Double winnings if your selection loses the first set but wins the match |
| BoyleSports | (M) Double winnings if your selection loses the first set but wins the match |
| My Club Betting | (M) Money back as a free bet (up to £30.00) if your selection loses in five sets |
| Paddy Power | (M) Men’s Singles bets paid as a winner if our selection goes two sets up |
| RealDealBet | (M) Money back as a free bet (up to £20.00) if your selection loses in five sets |
| Unibet | (M) Money-back in cash (up to £100.00) if selection leads by two sets and loses |
| Vernons | (M) Money back as a free bet (up to £50.00) if your selection loses in five sets |
WARNING: Please be aware of the retirement rules regarding tennis bets. In the event of a player retiring, if the bookmaker has different rules to the betting exchange, it could leave you exposed to big losses. Smarkets and Betfair have the same retirement rules, in that if the first set of a match is not completed, all bets related to the match will be voided. If the bookmaker has different terms to the betting exchange, you may want to consider dutching your bet with a bookmaker who shares the same retirement rules.
Qualifying Bets:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
The strategy is the same for all ten offers. We just need to select players with tight back and lay odds in order to minimise our qualifying losses and hope we hit the refund/boost triggers.
For the Paddy Power offer, we need to hope our selection goes two sets up and then loses, so that both our back and lay bets win.
The following example is for the Betway offer. Having looked at the odds available for Blaz Kavcic v Mikhail Youzhny, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Blaz Kavcic.
I prefer to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges. It’s worth keeping an eye on the lay odds at Betfair but they’ll need to be tighter to compensate for the higher commission rate.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.59…
Place £25.00 on Blaz Kavcic @ 2.40 = Potential profit of £35.00
Lay £24.59 on Blaz Kavcic @ 2.46= Potential liability of £35.90
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Kavcic wins having won the first set | + £35.00 – £35.90 = £0.90 loss |
| Kavcic wins having lost the first set | + £35.00 – £35.90 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £19.10 profit |
| Kavcic doesn’t win | – £25.00 + £24.09 = £0.91 loss |
So, if Blaz Kavcic wins the match having lost the first set, we’ll make a nice profit of £19.10. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a maximum loss of £0.91. Risking £0.91 to make a profit of £19.10, gives us effective odds of 21.99, which I’m sure you’ll agree makes this is a profitable offer in the long run.
I’ll update the following tables with my actual selections after the matches have been played…
10Bet Offer
| Match | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baghdatis v Fritz | Fritz | 1.909 | 1.99 | £0.89 | £15.11 |
| Daniel v Paul | Paul | 1.54 | 1.62 | £1.14 | £14.86 |
| Jaziri v Monteiro | Monteiro | 2.30 | 2.40 | £1.06 | £14.94 |
| Troicki v Gombos | Troicki | 1.571 | 1.66 | £1.22 | £14.77 |
| M. Zverev v Paire | Paire | 1.64 | 1.71 | £0.98 | £15.02 |
| Travaglia v Troicki | Troicki | 1.833 | 1.88 | £0.68 | £15.31 |
| Dzumhur v Stebe | Dzumhur | 1.74 | 1.84 | £1.26 | £14.73 |
| Sugita v Mayer | Sugita | 1.833 | 1.89 | £0.80 | £15.20 |
| Troicki v Dolgopolov | Troicki | 3.20 | 3.30 | £0.89 | £15.11 |
| Mannarino v Thiem | Mannarino | 3.50 | 3.65 | £1.11 | £14.89 |
| Bautista-Agut v Del Potro | Del Potro | 2.00 | 2.10 | £1.15 | £14.84 |
| Shapovalov v Carreno Busta | Carreno Busta | 2.20 | 2.28 | £0.92 | £15.08 |
| Pouille v Schwartzman | Pouille | 1.80 | 1.89 | £1.14 | £14.86 |
| Querrey v M. Zverev | M. Zverev | 2.80 | 2.90 | £0.95 | £15.05 |
| Del Potro v Thiem | Del Potro | 1.833 | 1.88 | £0.68 | £15.31 |
| Carreno Busta v Schwartzman | Schwartzman | 3.10 | 3.20 | £0.89 | £15.11 |
| Querrey v Anderson | Querrey | 1.769 | 1.81 | £0.63 | £15.37 |
As you can see, I made a total profit of £31.61 on this 10Bet offer!
188BET Offer
| Match | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baghdatis v Fritz | Fritz | 1.84 | 1.90 | £1.02 | £22.73 |
| Cuevas v Dzumhur | Dzumhur | 1.55 | 1.60 | £0.97 | £22.78 |
| Lisicki v Zhang | Zhang | 1.66 | 1.76 | £1.62 | £22.12 |
| Zhuk v Putintseva | Zhuk | 1.94 | 1.99 | £0.88 | £22.87 |
| Kontaveit v Safarova | Kontaveit | 2.07 | 2.20 | £1.73 | £22.01 |
| Ozaki v Lao | Lao | 1.77 | 1.88 | £1.69 | £22.06 |
| Kavcic v Youzhny | Youzhny | 1.57 | 1.66 | £1.54 | £22.20 |
| Daniel v Paul | Daniel | 2.55 | 2.64 | £1.15 | £22.59 |
| Jaziri v Monteiro | Monteiro | 2.35 | 2.40 | £0.82 | £22.93 |
| M. Zverev v Paire | Paire | 1.64 | 1.71 | £1.23 | £22.52 |
| Johnson v Edmund | Edmund | 1.84 | 1.92 | £1.27 | £22.47 |
| Allertova v Peterson | Peterson | 1.75 | 1.83 | £1.32 | £22.43 |
| Rogers v Day | Rogers | 1.62 | 1.69 | £1.23 | £22.51 |
| Travaglia v Troicki | Troicki | 1.82 | 1.88 | £1.02 | £22.72 |
| Dzumhur v Stebe | Dzumhur | 1.74 | 1.84 | £1.57 | £22.17 |
| Sugita v Mayer | Sugita | 1.78 | 1.89 | £1.68 | £22.07 |
| Bogdan v Niculescu | Niculescu | 1.71 | 1.73 | £0.50 | £23.25 |
| Vesnina v Flipkens | Vesnina | 1.65 | 1.75 | £1.63 | £22.11 |
| Anderson v Coric | Anderson | 1.45 | 1.49 | £0.83 | £22.91 |
| Makarova v Suarez Navarro | Makarova | 1.56 | 1.65 | £1.55 | £22.20 |
| Barty v Stephens | Barty | 2.07 | 2.18 | £1.52 | £22.23 |
| Sevastova v Vekic | Vekic | 2.04 | 2.14 | £1.43 | £22.32 |
| Bautista-Agut v Del Potro | Del Potro | 2.00 | 2.10 | £1.44 | £22.30 |
| Dzumhur v Rublev | Dzumhur | 2.08 | 2.18 | £1.42 | £22.33 |
| Goerges v Stephens | Stephens | 1.55 | 1.62 | £1.26 | £22.48 |
| Kanepi v Osaka | Osaka | 1.45 | 1.53 | £1.48 | £22.27 |
| Radwanska v Vandeweghe | Radwanska | 1.79 | 1.88 | £1.43 | £22.32 |
| Vandeweghe v Safarova | Vandeweghe | 1.76 | 1.81 | £0.90 | £22.83 |
| Kasatkina v Kanepi | Kasatkina | 1.50 | 1.55 | £0.99 | £22.76 |
| Carreno Busta v Schwartzman | Carreno Busta | 1.42 | 1.46 | £0.83 | £22.90 |
| Querrey v Anderson | Anderson | 2.15 | 2.24 | £1.27 | £22.47 |
| Stephens v Sevastova | Stephens | 1.58 | 1.59 | £0.34 | £23.40 |
| V. Williams v Kvitova | Kvitova | 1.65 | 1.68 | £0.64 | £23.10 |
| Pliskova v Vandeweghe | Pliskova | 1.56 | 1.61 | £0.97 | £22.78 |
| V. Williams v Stephens | V. Williams | 1.62 | 1.66 | £0.80 | £22.95 |
| Vandeweghe v Keys | Keys | 1.65 | 1.70 | £0.93 | £22.80 |
As you can see, I made a total profit of £4.59 on this 188BET offer!
BetMcLean Offer
| Match | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baghdatis v Fritz | Baghdatis | 1.95 | 2.04 | £1.36 | £18.64 |
| Cuevas v Dzumhur | Dzumhur | 1.55 | 1.60 | £0.97 | £19.03 |
| Jaziri v Monteiro | Monteiro | 2.30 | 2.40 | £1.33 | £18.67 |
| M. Zverev v Paire | Paire | 1.65 | 1.71 | £1.08 | £18.92 |
| Ramos-Vinolas v Mahut | Ramos-Vinolas | 1.55 | 1.62 | £1.27 | £18.73 |
| Johnson v Edmund | Edmund | 1.85 | 1.92 | £1.14 | £18.85 |
| Travaglia v Troicki | Troicki | 1.80 | 1.88 | £1.28 | £18.70 |
| Sugita v Mayer | Sugita | 1.80 | 1.89 | £1.43 | £18.57 |
| Fabbiano v Lorenzi | Lorenzi | 1.444 | 1.49 | £0.93 | £19.06 |
| Anderson v Coric | Anderson | 1.444 | 1.49 | £0.93 | £19.06 |
| Bautista-Agut v Del Potro | Del Potro | 2.00 | 2.10 | £1.44 | £18.55 |
| Dzumhur v Rublev | Rublev | 1.80 | 1.88 | £1.28 | £18.70 |
| Shapovalov v Carreno Busta | Carreno Busta | 2.20 | 2.28 | £1.15 | £18.85 |
| Pouille v Schwartzman | Pouille | 1.80 | 1.89 | £1.43 | £18.57 |
| Goffin v Rublev | Goffin | 1.50 | 1.55 | £0.99 | £19.01 |
| Carreno Busta v Schwartzman | Carreno Busta | 1.40 | 1.46 | £1.18 | £18.82 |
As you can see, I made a total profit of £40.81 on this BetMcLean offer!
Betway Offer
| Match | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baghdatis v Fritz | Fritz | 1.909 | 1.99 | £1.25 | £16.93 |
| Cuevas v Dzumhur | Dzumhur | 1.615 | 1.60 | £0.05 | £12.35 |
| Lisicki v Zhang | Zhang | 1.667 | 1.76 | £1.52 | £11.82 |
| Zhuk v Putintseva | Zhuk | 1.909 | 1.99 | £1.26 | £16.93 |
| Kontaveit v Safarova | Kontaveit | 2.10 | 2.20 | £1.41 | £18.61 |
| Ozaki v Lao | Lao | 1.80 | 1.88 | £1.30 | £14.72 |
| Kavcic v Youzhny | Youzhny | 1.615 | 1.66 | £0.86 | £11.44 |
| Daniel v Paul | Daniel | 2.625 | 2.64 | £0.45 | £19.55 |
| Struff v Dolgopolov | Struff | 2.10 | 2.18 | £1.18 | £18.82 |
| Troicki v Gombos | Troicki | 1.571 | 1.66 | £1.52 | £9.90 |
| M. Zverev v Paire | Paire | 1.667 | 1.71 | £0.84 | £12.52 |
| Townsend v Bogdan | Bogdan | 2.10 | 2.20 | £1.39 | £18.61 |
| Stephens v Cibulkova | Cibulkova | 2.25 | 2.32 | £1.03 | £18.97 |
| Wickmayer v Kanepi | Wickmayer | 1.727 | 1.77 | £0.83 | £13.73 |
| Fabbiano v Lorenzi | Fabbiano | 3.00 | 3.05 | £0.75 | £19.27 |
| Barty v Stephens | Barty | 2.10 | 2.18 | £1.18 | £18.82 |
| Troicki v Dolgopolov | Troicki | 3.20 | 3.30 | £1.10 | £18.91 |
| Radwanska v Vandeweghe | Radwanska | 1.80 | 1.88 | £1.28 | £14.72 |
| Svitolina v Keys | Svitolina | 1.80 | 1.88 | £1.30 | £14.72 |
| Stephens v Sevastova | Stephens | 1.571 | 1.59 | £0.48 | £10.94 |
| Pliskova v Vandeweghe | Pliskova | 1.571 | 1.61 | £0.80 | £10.64 |
| Vandeweghe v Keys | Vandeweghe | 2.375 | 2.46 | £1.15 | £18.85 |
As you can see, I made a total profit of £1.93 on this Betway offer!
BoyleSports Offer
| Match | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baghdatis v Fritz | Baghdatis | 2.00 | 2.04 | £0.60 | £15.41 |
| Daniel v Paul | Paul | 1.571 | 1.62 | £0.76 | £8.39 |
| Struff v Dolgopolov | Dolgopolov | 1.80 | 1.87 | £0.93 | £11.87 |
| Bautista-Agut v Del Potro | Del Potro | 2.00 | 2.10 | £1.15 | £14.85 |
| Shapovalov v Carreno Busta | Shapovalov | 1.727 | 1.79 | £0.89 | £10.76 |
| Pouille v Schwartzman | Schwartzman | 2.10 | 2.18 | £0.93 | £16.67 |
| Querrey v M. Zverev | M. Zverev | 2.75 | 2.90 | £1.29 | £26.71 |
| Del Potro v Thiem | Del Potro | 1.833 | 1.88 | £0.68 | £12.65 |
As you can see, I made a total profit of £18.90 on this BoyleSports offer!
Paddy Power Offer
| Match | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel v Paul | Daniel | 2.625 | 2.64 | £0.45 | £65.17 |
| Goffin v Rublev | Goffin | 1.533 | 1.55 | £0.46 | £37.86 |
As you can see, I made a total loss of £0.91 on this Paddy Power offer!
RealDealBet Offer
| Match | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travaglia v Troicki | Troicki | 1.80 | 1.88 | £1.02 | £14.96 |
| Sugita v Mayer | Sugita | 1.80 | 1.89 | £1.14 | £14.86 |
| Bautista-Agut v Del Potro | Del Potro | 2.00 | 2.10 | £1.15 | £14.84 |
| Pouille v Schwartzman | Pouille | 1.80 | 1.89 | £1.13 | £14.86 |
| Querrey v M. Zverev | M. Zverev | 2.75 | 2.90 | £1.29 | £14.71 |
| Del Potro v Thiem | Del Potro | 1.80 | 1.88 | £1.02 | £14.96 |
As you can see, I made a total loss of £6.75 on this RealDealBet offer!
Unibet Offer
| Match | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel v Paul | Daniel | 2.65 | 2.64 | £0.88 | £99.12 |
As you can see, I made a total loss of £0.88 on this Unibet offer!
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.