US Open 2018 Offers

The US Open 2018 gets underway today and the bookies are getting in on the action! There are some great offers available for the duration of the tournament, so provided we minimise our qualifying losses, we stand a great chance of making some big profits and here’s how…

Available Offers:

Bookie Offer
Bet365 (M) Men’s Singles bets paid as a winner if our selection goes two sets up (if eligible)
Betfred (M) Money back as a free bet (up to £10.00) if your selection wins the first two sets but loses the match
BetMcLean (M) Money back as a free bet (up to £25.00) if your selection loses in five sets
BoyleSports (M&W) Double winnings as a free bet (up to £25.00) if your selection loses the first set but wins the match
Paddy Power (M) Men’s Singles bets paid as a winner if our selection goes two sets up
SportPesa (M&W) Money back as a bonus (up to £25.00) if your selection loses in a final set tie-break

 

WARNING: Please be aware of the retirement rules regarding tennis bets. In the event of a player retiring, if the bookmaker has different rules to the betting exchange, it could leave you exposed to big losses. Betfair and Smarkets have the same retirement rules, in that if the first set of a match is not completed, all bets related to the match will be voided. If the bookmaker has different terms to the betting exchange, you may want to consider dutching your bet with a bookmaker who shares the same retirement rules.

 

Qualifying Bets:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

The strategy is the same for all six offers. We just need to select players with tight back and lay odds in order to minimise our qualifying losses and hope we hit the money back/double winnings triggers.

For the Bet365 and Paddy Power offers, we need our selection to go two sets up and then lose, so that both our back and lay bets win.

The following example is for the SportPesa offer. Having looked at the odds available for Petra Martic v Lucie Safarova, we could place a qualifying bet on Lucie Safarova.

At the time of writing, laying our bet with Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.25…

SportPesa logo

Place £25.00 on Lucie Safarova @ 1.833 = Potential profit of £20.83

Smarkets logo

Lay £24.25 on Lucie Safarova @ 1.91 = Potential liability of £22.06

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Safarova wins the match + £20.83 – £22.06 = £1.23 loss
Safarova loses the match in a final set tie-break – £25.00 + £23.76 + £20.00 (extract 80% from £25.00 bonus) = £18.76 profit
Safarova loses the match by other means – £25.00 + £23.76 = £1.24 loss

So, if Lucie Safarova loses the match in a final set tie-break, we’ll make a nice profit of £18.76. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a maximum loss of £1.24. Risking £1.24 to make a profit of £18.76, gives us effective odds of 16.13, which I’m sure you’ll agree makes this is a profitable offer in the long run.

* Safarova won the match 2-0, resulting in a loss of £1.23 on this match. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.