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Accidental overlay

This morning, I accidentally over-laid a £3 free back bet by plugging a £5 stake into the MB calculator by mistake.

Back/Lay odds were 9.5/9.8 respectively, which gave a lay stake of £4.32 (based on £5 back bet) – and so I had a potential win of £25.50 (£3 x 8.5) but an exposure of £38.21 (£4.32 x 8.8).

I guessed the way to fix this was to place a back bet on the exchange, but I wasn’t sure how to calculate what the best stake needed to be. Does one of the calculators help in this type of scenario?

+0

Neil S
76

December 20, 2022 at 9:53 am

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tradeax 5 December 20, 2022 at 2:12 pm

You could calculate how much you have overlaid and use the qualifying bet calculator and adjust the bet stake until it matches the overlaid amount.

In this case, the lay amount for a £3 free bet was £2.60, the overlay was £1.72. Using the same back odds of 9.5, start with £1.72 as your back stake, it says you should lay £1.67, up the back stake until lay stake is £1.72 which would be £1.77. Place a back bet of £1.77 @ 9.5.

If the back wins:
Bookmaker +£25.50
Exchange -£32.02
Exchange back +£15.02
Profit = £2.53

If the back loses:
Bookmaker +£0
Exchange +£4.32
Exchange back -£1.77
Profit = £2.55

+1

Neil S 76 December 20, 2022 at 2:23 pm

Thanks tradeax, now you’ve explained it, this makes perfect sense and I’ll know next time.

Luckily, it wasn’t a million miles from what I’d guessed — in fact, I made a few pence extra profit by under-estimating the back stake, because the horse didn’t win 🙂

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