Ante post betting
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So I have been going to the Doncaster St Leger for quite a few years now and was looking for the odds in September when I saw US army ranger coming up at various bookies at 13.0 which I thought was a great price so I put £40 on it not knowing anything about ante post betting.I now know that you get favourable odds(13.0 may or may not be favourable but a great horse like this cannot be much higher come race day even in the huge field this year IMO) as if you horse doesn’t run you lose your money. So looking on betfair I found US army ranger at a whopping 48.0 so I just had to get on it.I put a tenner on it but wish I had that other £40 on it!Do these odds just not seem crazy?Has anyone hit the jackpot with some outrageous odds in the ante-post?You can still get on it but has come down to a dissapponting 40 this morning ?
+0August 7, 2016 at 11:05 am
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New to matched betting?
My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Price reflects that this horse is highly unlikely to run in this race.
Peril’s of anti post betting. Will elaborate on this if you want later in the week when I have more time but you are likely to have lost your money.
+0I agree with Smarty. A price reflecting 48.0 for a horse like that on Betfair . Is unlikely to run. So you’ve probably done your dough.
You could either let the bet run and hope he turns up on the day and then your 48.0 looks very good or try and find a bookie offering similar odds and back and laying it off to just lose a small amount.
Good luck.
+0No chance he will go near the Leger.
+0A better bet would be Clare Balding beating Usain Bolt in the 100 metres in Rio?
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Yeah see that’s what I thought but when I see all the major bookies still offering at 13.0 I began to think maybe not which is when I saw this post https://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/cheltenham-festival-2016-antepost-betting-round-up-210316-72.html
which is a very interesting read.
I know the horse had a bit of injury trouble but is due to race I believe in about 10 days so time will tell.
If you lay ante post do you get your money back as a non runner?+0
hxxps://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/cheltenham-festival-2016-antepost-betting-round-up-210316-72.html
tt replaces xx
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I would love to hear some of your thoughts if you have time @smarty72?I don’t think that link works but it says Annie power was available at 350.0 on betfair which is insane.Do you know if u can lay ante post as I saw army ranger is down to 20.0 now?
Thanks
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You can if there’s a market on bet fair
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Yeah u can lay ante post but I mean are you only going to win ur lay if it runs? And if it does not run is your stake returned,lost or are you a winner?
+0Ok lets give you my own personal thoughts on Anti-Post betting which I have formed from past experience.
Firstly, Anti-Post betting and Match Betting are Polar opposites, it is gambling pure and simple.
However it can be a lot of fun but is very time consuming and there are a few basic’s to consider before ever striking an anti-post bet.
1. Is the horse a much bigger Price than would be available on the day of the race.
2. Does the horse have the ability to win the future race.
3. Most Importantly, will the horse line up in the race.
If you have a ? mark against any of the above I would advise against a bet.
Lots more factors to consider but these are the basic’s.
With your bet on US Army Ranger, you could tick the 1st 2 points as yes but there are very big question marks over the 3rd point.
Advisable to 1st look at Racing post Entries for the horse and this would tell you that….
ENTERED RACE ENTERED FOR THE FOLLOWING RACES
17Aug16 3:05 (Early closer) at York, Betway Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings)
17Aug16 3:40 (Early closer) at York, Juddmonte International Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1)
21Aug16 3:15 (Early closer) at Curragh, Kilfrush Stud Royal Whip Stakes (Group 3)
10Sep16 3:45 (Early closer) at Doncaster, Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Bet now 12
10Sep16 5:10 (Early closer) at Leopardstown, KPMG Enterprise Stakes (Group 3)
10Sep16 5:40 (Early closer) atLeopardstown, QIPCO Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1)
15Oct16 3:50 (Early closer) atAscot, Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) Bet now 12
Entered for 2 races at York next week but will only run in one and that most likely the Group 1 Juddmonte International which will define the route for the rest of the season, a Good performance and will stick to races around 1m 2f to 1m 4f. And then likely to then go for the Irish Champion Stakes on the same day as the St Ledger, then Champion Stakes at Ascot in October. The owners want to get a prestigious Group 1 win from this horse as that improves future breeding fees. Coolmore the owners want to win the top class races with top class colts so will always send there best horse with the best chance to the best races.
The St ledger unfortunately clashes with Irish Champions weekend and is much less prestige Group 1 in terms of breeding and bloodstock.
US Army Ranger could still turn up in the St Ledger but only if they have a better Colt available for the other races and at this stage that looks unlikely.
Looking at the current St ledger field there are currently 42 entries but it is likely only 10 of these will line up and maybe a couple of horses supplemented at a later stage. Of those entered the trainer Aidan O’Brien has 16 entries but will only run 2 or 3. However which ones he runs will not become clearer until the end of August.
Lastly for the moment, £50 stake on an Anti-Post bet is way to much! Great payday if it runs, better if it wins but in reality probably lost. Just write of the loss. You are unlikely to be able to lay and get out, may as well just cross your fingers and hope for the best. You would have been better spreading this stake over 5 horses (£5 Each Way) on some of the bigger priced horses that are likely to be specifically targeting this race. If one then turned up you would be cheering on the horse you got at a good big price a few months ago and be the envy of all your mates, especially if it starts at a much shorter price! That is of course until it loses!
By the way I love Anti-Post betting but it involves a lot of time, research and knowledge. If you like horse racing and Jumps would suggest that the Cheltenham Festival is the best for Anti-Post betting as you can really get into this this and from January onwards, most bookies offer NRNB. Last year I backed the Supreme Novice winner Anti-Post @ 25\1 but had another 15 Anti-Post losers so only broke even but was screaming the house down cheering him up the Cheltenham hill, made much sweeter by also getting free bet from Betfair as a MB bet.
With regards to the Betfair article, a very interesting read but the big Prices available On Annie Power were due to a number of factors but this does not happen very often. Vroum Vroum Mag was related to the Annie Power win, one would not have happened without the other.
Did you also read the Anti-Post Betting Advice?
Anyway enough for tonight!
Hope it helps a little and could type all night about this!
Any questions please ask, may be a few days to respond due to other commitments.
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Insightful post from Smarty. Just a note: It’s “Ante”, not “Anti”. Ante being from the Latin for before.
+0Lol the late night effect! .
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Thanks very much for the time and effort!Many more factors than I first realised and my opportunistic bet looks a bit naive!I will no doubt update you on how I got on…if my horse runs ?
+0Great post Smarty72 thanks for taking the trouble to write it. I’ve been reading up a bit on horse racing form type forums lately, I had no idea there was so much in it. The consensus seems to be that it takes years to get any good at it, and even then one needs to specialize, and the typical returns are not that good. Match betting is far more lucrative. Also if you do become good at horse race betting, the bookies will restrict you just like they do match bettors, so you will soon be limited to either shops, and or exchanges.
I think you probably need to have a real love for the sport or love for gambling to be able to preserver to become an expert at horse racing.
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