B365 no lay

Following on from Dan87 post about e/w arbing without laying after being restricted, I’ve been doing this on my B365 account since February this year.

I was restricted to pretty small stakes at the end of last year and thought that was it for my B365 account. Then a few months later, I read a post by Fog (who I definitely owe a beer to for highlighting this and Edge to me and others on the forum!) about how he’d be doing ok out of small value bets on B365 and thought I’d have a go.

I’m meant to be doing some work this afternoon but instead I’ve been procrastinating watching Wimbledon and working out some stats.

I started on the 4th Feb ’17 with £50 (with hindsight this probably wasn’t enough but I got lucky at the start)..

I’ve placed 319 bets – 259 each way (102 won or placed) and 60 singles (10 won). 318 of the bets were on horses and one £1 bet on the NFL (which lost). I pretty much always go for the max stake.

Total stakes were £1,818 and total return £2,323 (+£505).
Of which, the total each way stakes were £1,622 and total return £2,130 (+£508).
And, the total single stakes were £196 and total return £193 (-£3)

In that time I’ve also had 6 ITV refunds, total refund £40.28. So total profit £545.

I’m not sure how much time I spend doing it, not a massive amount though, maybe 20 minutes on Saturday morning and 10 minutes sporadically here and there.

I enjoy it anyway but it feel like it’s not bad use of my time.

I’ve been betting and not laying with my Betfair account too but I haven’t worked out the stats on that one yet..

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Mr Crispy
29

July 16, 2017 at 4:02 pm

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FoG_BLoG 47 October 14, 2017 at 12:23 pm

Thanks. Didn’t know that. I knew on sky you can usually get a bit more on but only if the price moves down, and not another full max stake, just a little top up.

Got another stake on the 2nd fav there.

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MbPunter 17 October 20, 2017 at 12:45 pm

Anyone suffered further restrictions? The 3.10 redcar is fair enough but some of the other races which aren’t even bad ew could only bet to win £10 of i wanted to.

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Mr Crispy 29 October 20, 2017 at 1:25 pm

If you’re referring to win only, then congratulations, you are more restricted than me! I can still win £50 on win only bets at all the Redcar races.

If you’re referring to each way, then my max amounts are reduced even for the races that aren’t bad ew… I’m not sure if that’s unusual though.! My limits seem to be reduced sometimes for no obvious reason..

I’d come to the conclusion the B365 would let me bet with my tiny stakes forever now..

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FoG_BLoG 47 October 20, 2017 at 1:27 pm

Not that I can see. Just checked there and they are letting me €45 on the 11/8 favourite in the 130 which is starting in 5 mins.

It’s pretty inconsistent. Wait to closer to the off or the big weekend races and I’m sure you can still get decent stakes …

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MbPunter 17 October 20, 2017 at 1:38 pm

Sorry i meant betting each way. Before i could bet to win say £30/50 on the win and be able to place the bet ew too. Can still bet to win £50. But if i try place it eachway it will reduce the max bet considerably. This was normally only present in obvious bad ew races.

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MbPunter 17 October 20, 2017 at 1:51 pm

Maybe it’s just Redcar. Seems i can bet more on the win but as soon as i go ew it will reduce.

Say 10/1 i can bet £5 win or £1 ew.

Whereas Newcastle it is £3 win or £3 ew. Which is what it’s always been during the week since restricted.

Obvious bad ew was an exception of course.

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FoG_BLoG 47 October 20, 2017 at 2:06 pm

Yes see what you mean.

Similar to me here at redcar I can bet €6.25 on win and €1.25 on ew for 10/1.

And at Newcastle it is €3.75 regardless for 10/1.

Never really payed much attention to the restrictions, varies from time and day and race etc. I just get on what I can.

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Mr Crispy 29 November 20, 2017 at 2:08 pm

Account adjustments.

If you hit an ITV 4/1 winner at 5.0 and you have say £12.50 ew on it.

I think that’s a theoretical £25 risk free in the next ITV 4/1 race.

If you max bet (say £2) that on a horse (win only) that is 26.0 in the next ITV 4/1 race and that horse wins, do you get paid out £625 (plus your stake so £627)?

If so then (variance aside) if your account is restricted, it makes sense to go for a long odds option following a win.

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Mr Crispy 29 November 20, 2017 at 2:22 pm

Actually ignore that, assuming the odds are equally as tight with the exchange odds, I think the optimum odds would still be 5.0. Either way you’ll get your stake refunded if it loses and a horse a 5.0 is going to give you a much better shot at hitting another 4/1…

I was getting hung up on the huge effective odds of a long shot but, that’s a red herring (because the stake is refunded anyway)..

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bbobb 21 November 20, 2017 at 2:29 pm

I thought it was risk free equal to your stake in the previous race (or the win only part of it).

I think the best strategy would be to betmax on horses as close to 4-1 until you hit, then on your risk free bet you should be betting on horses that won’t allow you to match your stake.

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MbPunter 17 November 20, 2017 at 3:46 pm

The £2 at 26/26 would be better value slightly because the follow up free bet on the 5.0/5.0 would only be £12.50.

Problem with that strategy, it assumes theres no ew value in the race. If there was i would have already placed £12.50 ew on the 5.0/5.0 earlier in the day and taken more ew bets after that. Certainly wouldn’t be waiting to see if the previous horse wins before committing.

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Mr Crispy 29 November 20, 2017 at 6:35 pm

Bbobb – Based on the T&Cs it includes the place part of an each-way bet too. Not that I recall this ever benefiting me!

The other side of that is if you go ew on a risk free bet (because you’ve backed the value in the morning like MbP mentioned above) and the horses places, then your refund will be reduced by the returns on the place bet.

MbP – Thanks, I normally do the same, although I try to find a win only bet on the second race onwards to bet on first if there’s any value, to improve my chances of a refund.

A £500 plus “account adjustment” is something to dream about.

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MbPunter 17 November 20, 2017 at 7:03 pm

It definitely includes the ew and is upto £25 .
Yeah maybe your strategy is better Mr Crispy.
Although if just the 2nd horse won i’d have risk free £25 as opposed to £12.50. Could possibly balance out, not sure!
If i haven’t already got a bet on that race, i’d obvs back win only.

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mannis05 0 November 27, 2017 at 9:07 pm

@Mr Crispy, have you tried to see if other bookies are giving you similar “value” as well? Or is your value of non-laying only based on Bet365’s generous odds/ ITV offer?
E.g. I reckon one could replicate this with WillH, BFSB etc. and get their good offers for “free” ? 🙂

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Mr Crispy 29 November 28, 2017 at 6:48 am

I did a similar thing with Betfair.

The night before, find races that are one non-runner away from changing the place terms (4 place, 1/4 odds races with 16 runners are ideal), then find a horse where the Betfair SB odds are similar to the exchange, Edge the bet down to 2 places and hope that there is a withdrawal prior to the race.

I did this quite a bit for about a month without laying anything or cashing out. I didn’t ever get round to calculating my overall return but it was positive. After the month Betfair hit me with further restrictions which meant I didn’t think it was worth my time to carry on.

I occasionally log in to my gubbed/restricted Sky Bet account to have a (usually about 50p max) punt on their generous place odds in bad ew races.

Bet365 are (in my opinion) the best though, they have consistently good odds and don’t gub you from the ITV 4/1 offer.

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