B365 no lay

Following on from Dan87 post about e/w arbing without laying after being restricted, I’ve been doing this on my B365 account since February this year.

I was restricted to pretty small stakes at the end of last year and thought that was it for my B365 account. Then a few months later, I read a post by Fog (who I definitely owe a beer to for highlighting this and Edge to me and others on the forum!) about how he’d be doing ok out of small value bets on B365 and thought I’d have a go.

I’m meant to be doing some work this afternoon but instead I’ve been procrastinating watching Wimbledon and working out some stats.

I started on the 4th Feb ’17 with £50 (with hindsight this probably wasn’t enough but I got lucky at the start)..

I’ve placed 319 bets – 259 each way (102 won or placed) and 60 singles (10 won). 318 of the bets were on horses and one £1 bet on the NFL (which lost). I pretty much always go for the max stake.

Total stakes were £1,818 and total return £2,323 (+£505).
Of which, the total each way stakes were £1,622 and total return £2,130 (+£508).
And, the total single stakes were £196 and total return £193 (-£3)

In that time I’ve also had 6 ITV refunds, total refund £40.28. So total profit £545.

I’m not sure how much time I spend doing it, not a massive amount though, maybe 20 minutes on Saturday morning and 10 minutes sporadically here and there.

I enjoy it anyway but it feel like it’s not bad use of my time.

I’ve been betting and not laying with my Betfair account too but I haven’t worked out the stats on that one yet..

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Mr Crispy
29

July 16, 2017 at 4:02 pm

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Johnbo 14 July 16, 2017 at 4:52 pm

28% ROI is very impressive Mr Crispy, just goes to show that restricted accounts can still tick over decent profits.

When you say ‘value’ bets, are you referring to anything that comes up as prices that are showing as matches or arbs in the morning and taking that price, or do you mean EW arb bets?

I’ve been meaning to ask FOG about this also but have you kept records of the price changes as in would you be able to trade on them given the prices must come in more often than not to get those kinds of returns?

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devans 0 July 16, 2017 at 4:52 pm

So your laying off the win part and leaving the each way run its course seen you (pardon the pun)
Got say mind I occasionally keep an eye out for these races and the matches are dreadful now. Back a horse at 28 and lay it off at 50. Takes the value out of the place then.

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Mr Crispy 29 July 16, 2017 at 5:27 pm

Johnbo – My method isn’t particularly scientific, if it’s obvious (ie yesterday morning Limato was 5.5 at B365 and paying 1/4 for e/w, from memory, I think it was laying at Betfair at 5.4 on the win and the place at 1.93 – I can work out that there’s some value there in my head) then I’ll bet without even checking, if I can’t work it out roughly in my head I’ll just use Matt’s E/W calculator and if that tells me I could lay for a guaranteed profit then I bet (but don’t lay).

No idea about the prices I’m afraid.

Devans – I don’t lay off anything but, my average stake is only just over £3! So each bet isn’t risking a huge amount.

B365 often paying enhanced place odds on Saturday makes it a lot easier to find ew bets that you could lay off for a profit if you wanted. Plus the ITV refund is a nice occasional bonus!

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devans 0 July 16, 2017 at 6:05 pm

How do you profit from the enhanced places? I always thought this was a case of laying the place and win off and then fingers crossed for the extra place.
Is there a method to guarantee profit from these ?

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feltt1p 5 July 16, 2017 at 6:47 pm

devans, it’s not an extra place (although they do, do that) it’s better value ew. So 1/4 odds on what all other bookies are paying 1/5 odds on.

Obviously having an extra place you’re more likely to hit a win, doesn’t matter if there isn’t anywhere to lay as you’re punting it anyway.

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Mr Crispy 29 July 16, 2017 at 7:08 pm

^as felt said.

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betman 40 July 16, 2017 at 7:17 pm

Don’t think there is ever a case of laying adding value, checking the lay confirms the value in the back bet then taking the lay is the same as buying insurance in terms of paying a premium to reduce/remove cash variance

The thing is variance can be huge on everything…. but it’s a great point on pushing limited accounts, as the stake is so limited variance is limited- and you probably have a chunk of winnings behind u at this stage. Sky extra places is another good one. Needs to be people that don’t restrict to literally pennies though

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Johnbo 14 July 17, 2017 at 11:35 pm

Cheers for the reply Mr Crispy, good stuff, hopefully the profits keep coming with this method 🙂

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Deej 15 July 18, 2017 at 8:12 pm

I have just seen this post. Thanks for this input Crispy, its nice to hear of peoples successes as this will eventually be where most of us matched betters will end up when all is said and done and we have been gubbed by everyone ha!

It gives me great faith that over time this is definitly worth doing when we have all exhausted all methods of income from matched betting.

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devans 0 July 18, 2017 at 9:19 pm

Cheers lads.
So just to clarify if there is a possible arb in place that means there is value in just laying off the win part and then leaving the place part to run its course.
If it wins it wins
If it loses you lose the ew stake of the bet ??

Over time you be in the green your saying ??

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Mr Crispy 29 October 7, 2017 at 10:11 pm

Thought I’d update my spreadsheet on this…

I’ve now placed 529 bets – 418 each way (167 won or placed) and 111 singles (17 won). 527 of the bets were on horses and one £1 bet on the NFL (which lost) and one £166 bet on boxing (Mayweather).

Total stakes were £3,992 and total return £4,744 (+£751).
Of which, the total each way stakes were £3,220 and total return £3,996 (+£776).
And, the total single stakes were £772 and total return £747 (-£25)

In that time I’ve also had 10 ITV refunds, total refund £70. So total profit £821.

No signs of me being restricted anymore severally…

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betman 40 October 7, 2017 at 10:42 pm

With the itv refunds are you checking the results to get a risk free bet on in the next race, or just hitting a few as you have bet in sequential races?

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Enigma 28 October 7, 2017 at 10:44 pm

Thanks for the post MrCrispy.

Good to hear you havent been restricted any further. What sort of stakes can you get on the races today? (ITV races vs non ITV races)

It amazes me that B365 offer such value when other bookies are so stingy. No complaints, but they really stand out for horse racing

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Mr Crispy 29 October 8, 2017 at 8:04 am

Betman – it varies but normally the latter, I generally place all the bets in the morning. I try to find a single in each itv race first, then move on to EW. It’s not ideal because sometimes the only value is betting EW and then I’m reducing the chance of a refund if I’ve hit the winner of the previous race. Yesterday there was only one it race that I couldn’t find anything to get on, I went out for the day and when I came home I realised I’d picked the winner in the previous race – damn!

Enigma – I think I’m limited to winning £50 on a single. So I can get £10 on a horse at 6.0. They’ll let me do the same each way. I normally only do the ITV races with a few sporadic bets here and there when I’m looking for arbs on Oddschecker and I notice some good odds on 365. I’m not sure what I can win on those, it feels like about £25ish…

They won’t let me bet more than a £1 on a (very) bad each way race (unless I’m backing the favourite) or a pricewise pick.

Yeah, I think if I had a b365 account that couldn’t be gubbed or restricted, I would retire and bet full time.

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betman 40 October 8, 2017 at 8:43 am

Thanks. My 365 account is now restricted,but is also registered at an old address and was pre kyc.
May drop my activity till later in the yr then decide which way to go

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