Backing "to place" on exchange on bad EW races.
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Not got time to write my theory in detail but basically loads of people are trying to lay off the place in these races do you think this is pushing the back price up above it’s true probability especially on the horses with the best arbs?
+0November 15, 2017 at 5:34 pm
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A very insightful and interesting read there FOG. Always the source of some great information. I would guess it has happened before where a bookie has paid a trainer or jockey to withdraw the horse. I am not sure what fees are attached to this happening but if it was a major major race then they may. Churchill with O Brien would be my first thought here earlier in the year.
However, with what we do I guess it is more of a headache to them and can put them in some loss making positions on these races especially midweek! However, with enough mugs punting ew on the other races this would help even things up.
I do though standby my comments in that over time more and more people have moved to ew arbing due to the death of other natural offers in particular the accas.
+0I see that my place bet at odds of 1.65 on Marley Firth (13:15 at Chepstow) has just taken – when I put this on the odds were way under this.
It will now be interesting to see if they come in again or if I have wasted my £10 stake. Currently worryingly the odds are climbing…lol
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I don’t know about outright bribes. But I am sure that a lot of these industry folk move in the same circles. And maybe unsaid you scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours arrangements exist.
I don’t really buy into the conspiracy theories but who knows.
Yeah just found that post from some Derek guy who claims he could get 1/3 odds on 5 to 7 runner races and 1/4 on anything else, he said in the 50’s and 60’s. Must have been nice.
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I can confirm the bookie bribing theory to pull a runner to change a race from a bad e/w to a not bad e/w. It was just a small race in Ireland but the guy told me his buddies were all in a syndicate. Had the horse for a bit of fun, the horse was a rank outsider at something like 50/1 early morning. The boys were travelling to the track for their day out and got a call, the money offered was enough to cover the horse’s trainer fees for the rest of the year. Whether it happens in bigger meeting I don’t know but it does happen. Don’t forget that although racing is a beautiful sport is also a very corrupt one.
I also agree with the few on here about the e/w place terms. Just a fucking year year ago I was getting PP extra place races in shop for 1/4 odds most of the time, now, NONE of them are ever 1/4 any more, they’re all 1/5. There was a big write up in the racing post about this a few weeks back, the writer believes what will happen will be similar to what happens in Australia where there is a minimum bet that bookies have to take from punters but he also says the place market will become separate, it wouldn’t be that hard for bookies to do with a lot offering place markets already.
Watch this space. It mightn’t come as fast as the acca death we predicted but it’ll come.It hasn’t happened through all these years because there hasn’t been bloody walk-throughs on forums such as fucking ‘mom’s net’ before. It’s EVERYWHERE now. There’s a massive rise in bookies losing value online this way.
Fucking mom’s net like. Think about that for a minute!+0
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