Backing "to place" on exchange on bad EW races.
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Not got time to write my theory in detail but basically loads of people are trying to lay off the place in these races do you think this is pushing the back price up above it’s true probability especially on the horses with the best arbs?
+0November 15, 2017 at 5:34 pm
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Yes – and the same situation with the win!
I think the oracle that is Mark Corrigan (he doesn’t post here anymore) talked about backing places on the exchange in bad ew races and doing quite well out of it.
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I dabbled, didn’t make anything! Will have another look sometime.
They can’t be all be pushed above the true probability on the exchange or the overround would be pushed to something impossible. I am sure that there are some that are and that are value though the trick would be to identify which ones.
I went about it mathematically working out place odds based on win odds but obviously I didn’t get it right.
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That’s good to know Fog, when I dabbled I didn’t make anything either!
I probably placed less than ten bets though.
+0The place market is complicated with the fact that 3 horses can win and it can create confusing situations. What mark used to imply is that he would put backs in early on in the day so that an ew arber could lay places off straight there and then. I have changed when I lay these places off as it seems everyone is trying to do this at the same time. There can also be situations where I see a bit of “panic” going on and it’s about avoiding that. With how much ew arbing that is going on I definitely wonder whether now is the time to let the places run. Unless the place is 1.5 or lower. In that situation I think there is value to overlay.
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Beesty – any reasoning behind the 1.5 or lower principle?
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Also tried this a while back but profits were tiny.
I let places run if the arb is less than a point or just lay 50% depending on the race.
+0Mostly been covered above. The main value is when there is a big back/lay spread and some people are too eager to lay off.
The Overround usually forms to just over 300% so like fog said there isn’t anything stand out come the off
I made a model for the place prices, seems pretty robust and in a stable market I’ve seen the prices move in line with the model just before the off. The problem is the markets aren’t stable so a drifter and couple late steamers actually make a big difference to implied place probability
My model also only works on races up to 10 horses and 3 places where the chance of placing should directly correlate to chance winning. Ie 2 x 16-1 chances have an equal chance of coming 3rd. Go beyond that and we know 2 x 16-1 horses probably don’t have an equal chance of coming 4th or 5th in a bigger field (plus I ran out if will doing the calcs)The model hasnt been worth the time as yet. When I’ve made money on the place market it’s not taken a genius, it’s been taking the early value when any of us who get the calcs in our head (not blindly using a calculator) could spot the place value.
The other opportunity is trading – when the people putting big money into the markets think the prices have stabilised you sometimes see some big swings if people need to place a certain amount on a place to balance their position. I’ve seen the place price shorten way past what it should be as someone is putting something like £500 in and gobbles up everything on the market… then within minutes it bounces back, often further than what it should be as layers panic
+0Yeah backing every horse will never be profitable as if this situation arose dutchers would immeadiatley push prices back down.
Id assume the overround to be reasonably stable, but a disproportionate amount of people will be trying to lay certain horses pushing their price up and perhaps indirectly pushing the prices of others down (could you lay these ones?).
The obvious problem is identifying which are which but if say any that are showing up on “matcher services” as arbs would be a good place to start.
I fancy doing small stakes as an experiment but I’m already getting bother from ‘er indoors about spending too much time on the phone/betting.
What got me thinking about this was a ew arb I placed this morning I chose to wait to lay the place, however during the day it drifted from about 1.35 to 1.7 despite the Win price staying pretty stable. My assumption was that there were loads of people desperate to lay off the place but the actual probabability of a top 3 finish shouldn’t have changed.
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I suppose in theory a horse could hold steady win on win probability and drift on place market. Imagine the weather/conditions changing so that it is suiting the favorite less but suits the rest of the field except your horse is kind of neutral on the conditions. So he would shorten as the fav drifts but that is offset by the advantage the rest of field gains with the conditions, so maybe his win odds stand still. But now there is much bigger competition for the places so his place odds drift.
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I suppose you have to be skeptical. I believe there is opportunities but just to be devils advocate.
You have to understand who is using the exchange and why …..
So there are traders, most probably working for bookies. Probably have stacks of cash to throw around. They can be quite generous with their money. If I could lay a horse like bookies do at 15/1 and back him at 30/1 on the exchange then I’d be throwing a lot of money around too.
There are the professional gamblers and those that use the exchange because they are banned by bookies. I imagine these ppl are very smart and have a great grasp of value and snap it up very quickly if there is ever any value. I don’t imagine there are many pro gamblers. So don’t think that their money will have as big a say on the markets as the bookie traders do. But still they could be staking 1000’s as their margins a probably pretty small so to make anything decent you need to invest big.
Then there are us small time ew arbers. Some laying the place, some not even bothering. Maybe laying stakes of 50 to 100, but almost never more.
Do you really think that the ew arbers money has enough influence on the market to cause a drift as big as 1.35 to 1.7?
Maybe. But would need to be an early market with not much cash in it and a very bad ew race that has attracted a disproportionate amount of ew snipers….
I don’t know. Just some things to think about. Anyone have any thoughts on what I’ve said?
+0Yep I believe at the off the prices will be pretty accurate, i don’t think ew arbers will be shifting a fancied runner from 1.35 to 1.70. They are more likely to hold up less fancied runners as there is less matched on them.
As Betman mentions the value will be in getting a bigger price matched by queuing a back. There’s big gaps during the day betweem the two. If the back overround is about 300%, if you can get bets matched a decent margin above the ‘back’ price, you have to assume you are getting value.
Problem i’ve found when i tried is it’s time consuming, tended to be constantly checking the market. Also say a horse was 3.20/4.0. I’d maybe put a back in at 3.80. Someone then tended to jump in front trying to back at 3.70 or so, frustrating.
If you want more obvious value, check out the 5TP markets on a Saturday..
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Very interesting. I’ve given a lot of thought to trading e/w races. I think you’re right tho Fog. Money from bad e/w races can be influential early doors when there is poor liquidity, especially pushing out the win price. However in the last 30 mins the proper money comes in and that makes our money seem like chump change.
I guess if you knew or could predict the source of the money then that would be an edge to trade.
Personally, I love the idea of trading but I think there’s an easier source of income doing our sort of stuff.
+0Mr crispy the 1.5 thing is just instinct. There is something else that interests me as well but never done it. Basically laying all horses whose place odds are 1.1 or lower in any race. In horse racing it just seems easy for certain horses to have a bad run, get out the stalls badly, get boxed in or fall over. Equally a longer priced horse can have a good run and whilst they may not win the race they can sneak into the frame.
Also a horses place odds in bad ew races do depend on the favourite. Just say that horse went from 1.3-1.7 but it’s price was still the same it could be that the favourite went on a mad drift from say 4/6 out to 6/4 whilst two horses got backed in from say 12s to 6s. Suddenly there could be a number of horses considered more for the 3 places. Than before so certain ones drift.
+0Just a small thought on how much is being placed on these markets and by who.
The 1325 (bad EW) has had currently over £2,500 traded on smarkets to place market. The 1335 (not bad EW) has had £126. So id say a large amount of the Place market is down to EW Arbing. Also if say nobody including traders are dropping much money on these markets.
+080k traded on Betfair close to the off though.
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