Backing "to place" on exchange on bad EW races.

  • Not got time to write my theory in detail but basically loads of people are trying to lay off the place in these races do you think this is pushing the back price up above it’s true probability especially on the horses with the best arbs?

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    beesty2016 3

    Interesting and the favourite did not place! I can’t see this going on much longer based on what I’ve seen happen in the past. Will not be long till bookies don’t even offer ew on these races or they will go higher than 1/5 of the odds. Will go the same was as accas, and all the other stuff people have done in the last 2 years.

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    Enigma 28

    Don’t give them ideas beesty…

    never seen 1/6th odds. is it not regulated that odds have to be 1/5? or just out of competition?

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    FoG_BLoG 47

    Acca insurance and money back races came and went in a couple of years. But ew betting is a way of betting that has been going for decades (forever?). And in general works out very well for them.

    Ppl have been arbing these odds I would guess since about betfair was invented in 2000.

    I don’t think they will change ew betting one bit. Just refuse business from those that they don’t want to do business with.

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    MbPunter 17

    Yeah i think the only thing that will and has changed is the 1/5 odds when they offer extra places in the handicaps.

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    betman 40

    I’ve seen 1/6th odds, no each way bets and much worse prices on the course so it’s not like it can’t be done.

    Competition may hold the value online, but it’s not hard to see they are harsher restricting. Look back to the start of beestys first post, when he’s proving this theory and others (who since jumped in) criticise it and say it’s false. The amounts and periods unblocked seem a lot more generous than now

    People kid themselves it’s prevalent everywhere and we’re a drop in the ocean on here, but i’ d say we’re a sizeable problem. Look how many people actively post, then how many people came out the woodwork running scared they’re handfed tips would go when a group was suggested.
    On the other hand you could say a year ago the bookies had other fish to fry, they run so little offers now that the yts traders need some way to take action against punters who might win

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    beesty2016 3

    Totally agree with that betman. Especially when everyone seems to be converging onto one thing. You only have to look at the posts on here as to what people are doing.

    Also the blog says it all as well every offer is potential profit where as before it had a mixture mainly of guaranteed and potential.

    We are a massive headache as we will not be the 5 or 10 ew mugs throughout the day we are looking for smash and grab basically with some doing it hours before the race and others minutes beforehand.

    I am sure in the end the bookies will get there way with these and have seen the same on course as betman has.

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    tennispunter 2

    I read this post with interest the other day and it renewed my interest in backing horses to place because this theory had previously occurred to me albeit I had not done anything about it.

    So today as a purely speculative effort I asked to back 2 horses in the 15:55 at Punchestown both for £10 at odds that were quite a bit higher than the lay odds that were currently on offer. (One was the favourite, I think, which Sporting Life shows started off with win odds of 1.66). I managed to get place odds of 1.63 which seems rather good when compared with the win odds.

    I deliberately did not ask to keep them in play and had the intention of revisiting the market shortly before the start to dbl check and hopefully lay for a small profit. Well that was the intention .. needless to say i quite forgot about these back bets and have found tonight when checking all balances and profit etc that both bets were accepted and as it happens, luckily, they both won!

    Whilst this is far too small a sample to draw any conclusions it does make me wonder if there is quite a bit of value to be found in these markets because people ‘panic’ and lay at almost any price?

    Just thought I would share this for what it is worth!

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    Lewdy 0

    @tennispunter

    Thanks for the input. Perhaps I’ll do some and post them too.

    One thought perhaps you got lucky and somebody accidentally layed your 1.63 thinking they were laying the win.

    I think that’s the way to go though place your back bet early when liquidity is poor and there is still a big gap between the back and lay price. Leave your back bet in that gap somewhere and wait to see if it gets taken.

    If you can offer guaranteed profit your bet will show up on “odds matching services” and will probably get gobbled up.

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    FoG_BLoG 47

    I still maintain that we are a drop in the ocean. The bookies have dealt with us by restrictions and bans. They are not going to change the ew terms are they? And the ew arbers money in the exchange is probably not significant, although I can see someone inexperienced taking a high lay on an early market – so there may be value in queueing a back bet at a decent price above the current back available and tempt someone to match it….

    Anyway its a quiet day.

    I have been doing some research.

    I have found topics on forums going back to 2006 and 2009 on ew stealing – plenty of ppl involved. All with the same problems we have with getting stakes accepted, and all with the same conspiracy theories as we have about non runners. They were dealt with, restricted and banned. The ew terms haven’t changed. I have seen an old blog about each way schnieding. I dont think the way that bookies are dealing with this problem is about changing the terms, more about identifying the culprits and barring them.

    The terms are not an offer as such, not like acca insurance or other offers. Its just the tradition, or the rule.

    Also Alex Bird was supposedly making good money on ew backing, he was a prominent gambler after the war. His golden rules in his book.

    “3. Be an Each-Way thief. Do this by finding races with 8-10 runners which are not handicaps, and where there are only a few form horses in the race. Then oppose the favourite and combine the second and third favourites in each-way combination bets.”

    I’ve read that maybe this was only attributed to him after the fact, especially because if he had been anyway decent at finding ew value then I doubt that he would have bothered setting up a ladder at the finishing post at race meetings and hoping for a photo finish to take advantage of some apparent optical illusion! How could that have paid off that often? Its a lot of work and suppose no photo finishes at that meeting then it was a waste of time. Unless photo finishes were very common back then. But still the book was published in 1986, so maybe even if he didn’t know about it or use it during his life, he at least knew enough to stick it in the book in 1986.

    Anyway I think its some thing that is almost set in stone (except that I read that maybe 1/4 ew terms used to be the norm for all the races? And now sometimes its 1/5?). I don’t see it changing, the trend is the opposite actually with bookies offering 1/4 odds and extra places on high profile races even bad ew races.

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    tennispunter 2

    Lewdy – You might be right as regards someone making a mistake and laying what they thought was the win as opposed to a place. As it happens I have made that same mistake in the past… to my cost!

    I am going to carry on putting in speculative place back bets on either the favourite or the 2nd favourite and we will see what happens. I really must try and keep a proper record as I do this and remember to visit the race in question just before the off to lay the horse if the back bet has been accepted. That said I guess you could argue there is value in leaving the bet in play and hoping it wins given the ‘outrageous’ odds I will have asked for!

    Fog_Blog – I agree with you here I don’t think our amounts are big enough to worry our bookie friends all that much and as you say they control us lot individually by bans/gubbings/closures etc.

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    betman 40

    The 1/4 odds thing might been me fog. In which case I’m not 100%. I can never recall not being able to get 1/4 the odds online in my ‘mug’ days, and used to grumble about 1/5 on course. What I’m not sure about is if I’d been going each way in 9 or 10 runner fields.

    Look at the amounts the secret 7 are claiming to make. Add in equally capable people on here, add in the wealth of less capable people copying the tips. That’s some serious money on outsiders in midweek racing, especially if one bookie is out of line and getting picked off. Also as I’ve said before look at the money matched on Betfair, there’s been points where I’ve felt virtually all activity on certain horses comes from each way arbers
    It’s been around for ages but rightly or wrongly I have the perception it’s a hot area at the moment. I’d be amazed if this hasn’t been noticed by bookmakers and extra eyes/actions a result of this.

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    Johnbo 14

    I guess time will tell guys but I remember contributing quite a lot on a stats based forum about ‘EW thieving’ back in 2004, so as FOG says, there has always been people betting on these races.

    I do think we are a drop in the ocean, I do not know a single person in real life who match bets, but I know plenty of people who bet and gamble on a regular basis. I tell them about match betting and arbing and they are not interested at all…they would rather keep mug betting…

    One guy in my work bets on ITV racing every week and I told him if he bets with BF or 365 he can get free bets on his winners, I even tell him 365 do 1/4 odds on these races and he just doesn’t listen.

    Mug gamblers will always outweigh the match bettors and we hardly make a dent in the bookies yearly profits. EW arbing requires a lot of effort and time invested and the vast majority of people aren’t interested in doing it…in my opinion anyway 🙂

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    betman 40

    Does he bet 50 eway on a 16-1 shot upsetting the odds on favourite at uttoxeter on a thurs afternoon though?

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    FoG_BLoG 47

    You may be right betman. Maybe beesty ignited a little buzz under this again. And never before has it been so easy to share info on groups like slack or twitter or something so maybe that sort of technology makes a difference this time. Anyway I am finding researching the history of ew stealing/arbing/thieving/sniping/schnieding pretty interesting.

    I like this little analysis from 1999 which predates websites like betfair. Ew value was very well understood. But look what he has done in estimating the value of a non runner for the industry. Interesting.

    Found on google groups.


    Paul Aitman

    So 16 runners for the Magnet Cup and a 9/4 favourite. Surely this has to
    be the ultimate Each Way scenario. Scout them out boys because there’ll
    be some real value out there.
    What would it mean to the bookies to get a non-runner for this race.
    Well let’s try and work it out.

    First, I have no idea how much will be staked on this race. I’m going to
    guess about 8 million but perhaps someone can correct me if they’ve got
    a better idea.

    Assuming most of it is done Each-Way, that means 4-million quid of place
    odds liability.

    The Ladbrokes place odds book is as follows :-

    Odds Place Odds Place Prob.
    2.25 0.56 0.64
    5.00 1.25 0.44
    6.00 1.50 0.40
    6.00 1.50 0.40
    6.50 1.63 0.38
    14.00 3.50 0.22
    20.00 5.00 0.17
    20.00 5.00 0.17
    20.00 5.00 0.17
    22.00 5.50 0.15
    25.00 6.25 0.14
    25.00 6.25 0.14
    33.00 8.25 0.11
    40.00 10.00 0.09
    50.00 12.50 0.07
    66.00 16.50 0.06

    3.75

    Well look and see we have a 400% return and 375% place odds. That means
    our old friends Ladbrokes are betting overbroke on their place odds !

    This means for every 4-million staked on the place odds the off-course
    bookies will have to pay out approx. 4.3 million.

    Now say one runner just happened to get a leg say, and oh so sad
    couldn’t run what would be the situation then…

    Well with only 3-places the place book is only 300%. This means for that
    4-million staked they’d only have to pay out 3.2 million quid.

    This means errr a 1.1 million pound difference that will go STRAIGHT TO
    THEIR COLLECTIVE BOTTOM LINES…

    It’s on significant races like this that non-runners should be treated
    with just a little more concern than usual. Anyone care to offer me
    odds;) ?


    Paul Aitman

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    Enigma 28

    Good research Fog. I did a quick google of each way stealing and thieving and people were talking about 1/3 odds – imagine that

    How, exactly, would the bookies encourage a NR? Are people suggesting outright bribing the owners?

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