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Betting horses that will shorten to cash out

  • You’ve probably noticed in alot of races especially bad EW races that alot of the bookies massively shorten the prices of outsiders about 10 minutes before the race.

    Anyone considered betting these horses intending to cash out for a profit when they shorten?

    It seems pretty predictable I did a couple yesterday and every outsider shortened on the bookies site. Also you can do win only so you shouldn’t flag up as an EW Arber.

    Thoughts?

    +0
    Lewdy
    0
    November 3, 2018 at 9:05 am

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    Mr Crispy 34 November 3, 2018 at 10:48 am

    I’ve tried it with PP and Bet365 – it didn’t work for me (except when the horse odds had shortened at the exchange)..

    When they cut the odds the cashout normally stayed at break even with 365 and a loss with Paddy..

    I would think if you went win only with Paddy, you’d be even less likely to get a positive cashout.

    Who did you try it with? Did it work?

    +0
    Lewdy 0 November 3, 2018 at 10:59 am

    On B365 it worked twice yesterday. In my (limited) experience on B365 if the price shortens by more than 5-10% the cash out usually goes up is this incorrect?

    I think the 2 horses in question also shortened on the exchange so you could be right maybe it’s related to that.

    +0
    dan42 9 November 3, 2018 at 11:30 am

    I prefer to back and lay close matches and hope for a BoG to kick in personally, the rewards seem bigger.

    On Bet365, even with a pretty big shortening price the cash out option is pretty small, I usually place £20-£30 bets and even if something comes in drastically the cash out option is only going to be a couple pounds over your stake.

    Of course if you’re staking hundreds then the rewards may be a little bigger, however. A word of warning, someone I know did this on the greyhounds, when Bet365 first put the prices up he would lump large sums of money on dogs he got tips for, he was placing so much he was affecting the markets, leading to the dogs price’s shortening, he then immediately cashed out for a profit.

    He got banned from using bet365 cash out pretty soon after that, so I don’t think they like it.

    +0
    aaronzebaron 5 November 8, 2018 at 10:48 am

    It’s best to back and lay on the exchanges if trading. You will always get better back odds, sometimes drastically so (= tighter spread), and you will also get a meassue of what kind of liquidity is on offer for trading out of your position(if you bet £100 for a 50/1 shot on Bet365, well good luck trying to trade out of it on any exchange… even if the liqudity is there, trying to hit a bid in fast moving markets is the biggest gamble you will take).

    If you look at smarkets, they now have graphs that give you an indication of the money moving through the market, and more often than not, the big orders placed are a precursor to the odds widening or shortening accross both bookmakers and exchanges.

    An inverse strategy to the one you suggest(and the only one I have made money on by accident, a few times now), is to back and lay a horse undergoing widening odds, with a bookmaker that offers “best odds guaranteed”. So for example if you back £100 at 3.0 and lay at 3.2 say, for QL of £7.5 but the horse starts with a SP of 5, then if it wins you have made £55. i.e. you get £100 at 5.0 when you laid at 3.2

    +0
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