In race arbs
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I have started betting on horses which have tight odds and are in the top 3 in the betting. After placing my back bet, I place a lay bet immediately after the race has started at odds which are approx 20% lower than my back bet. In the vast majority of instances, my horses prices have dropped sufficiently at some point in the race so that my lay bet was triggered thus creating an arb. I always underlay to ensure that if my lay bet is triggered I get my full stake back if my horse loses but earns a profit if it wins. In effect, I am betting that my selected horse will be sufficiently in contention at some point in the race such that its odds drop to my lay bet trigger level and an arb is created. Pressing the Trade out button once the odds drop has the same effect as setting a preset arb trigger level.
I would be interested in finding out the percentage of favourites whose price drops below the starting price at any point during a race and by how much.
+2February 11, 2022 at 11:03 pm
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As an example, today I placed a £10 back bet with a bookie just before the off at odds of 2.75. Just after race start I placed a lay bet of £10.20 at odds of 2.3 and waited for those odds to be reached, at which point my lay bet was triggered. Thereafter, I was in the position of having a risk free shot at £4.24 if my horse won and break even if it lost. As it happens, my horse won.
I had other similar bets today where my all of my preset lay bets triggered but my horses didn’t win. In every instance, I incurred no losses.
+0Sounds a bit like ‘dobbing’. Check out a website called pattern form. It used to be free but I think you have to pay a monthly sub now
+1Thanks for the info Mike J. I had never heard of the term “Dobbing” but it does describe what I’m doing.
Inserting “Dobbing” into my search engine produced this site which provides some very useful info about sources of starting prices and in running prices; e.g. Timeform.
https://caanberry.com/a-dobbing-strategy-guide-for-horse-racing/I’m not sure that I would feel confident enough to bet on 50% price reductions but happy with 10 – 20%.
If attempting this betting method, I suggest you dial your desired lay bet details into the Exchange and wait for them to be triggered automatically rather than using the trade out button approach. Often the desired lay odds may only be available for a fraction of a second. This is sufficient to trigger pre-placed lay bets but would be difficult to act on using the manually operated trade out button which also requires the user to confirm their trade out.
+0Thanks I’ll try this.
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