Lay The Draw…Any success?

  • Has anyone ever been successful with Lay The Draw and would like to share?

    For those who do not know, it is estimated 8-10% of football matches end with draw. Therefore some tactics say to wait the first half. If the first half is draw…0:0, 1:1..etc, the odds on draw will be around 2.5-3.5. You lay for £10 and then once a team scores you back the draw at odds of 5+ for a nice profit. Effectively its trading and a pure gamble.

    If there is anyone who has been doing this or attempted this technique, please come forward if you have some concrete results. Thanks

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    MarkCorrigan 7

    Why not do the research yourself?

    +0
    nick2punt 10

    ‘Effectively its trading and a pure gamble’. Contradicted yourself there. LTD isn’t rocket science and is no different to any other form of betting/trading. If you don’t have an edge/bank management etc etc you will burn cash. Finally, those that know don’t tell. Certainly not for free anyway.

    +1
    FoG_BLoG 47

    I know. And I’ll tell for free. There is no money to be made in lay the draw.

    +0
    nick2punt 10

    I’ll rephrase that for the muppets. Those that know they have an edge on any sport are unlikely to share their modus operandi.

    +2
    jameslegg97 8

    I did some research on it and I got the impression it was profitable at one point, but the markets became too saturated with people doing it, and it wasn’t worth the effort anymore.

    I’ve seen apps/bots that specifically do it, and I’d guess that’s an indicator of just how ‘known’ and widely used it is/was.

    I didn’t ever try it though as it seemed like I’d missed the boat by a fair few years!

    +0
    Tony 11

    Why would it not be worth the effort anymore? Fair enough you need to be selective about the games you target, but at the end of the day it’s sheer market mechanics that mean the odds on the draw will lengthen after the favourite takes the lead. No amount of over saturation will change that.

    +2
    Tony 11

    Also, what do you say that in FoG? Genuinely curious as I know your one for poring over vast amounts of data etc… so keen to understand why you would dismiss this strategy?

    +1
    Gilbs 15

    I have been doing this for the past 3-4 months on a fairly regular basis, waiting till draw odds drop to around 3.0 on the exchange before placing lay bet. It usually takes 30-45 minutes to reach level required. Depending on which team scores and when, makes a significant difference to how much the draw odds go up to. As always there is the chance that the game will end as a draw and you will lose your lay bet. In terms of profits, I would liken laying the draw to the martingdale system, in that you can win little and often but will lose much of it in a few larger losses. Not recommended.

    +2
    Traider 0

    @Jay Listen to @MarkCorrigan and have a look into it yourself – there’s plenty of stats available out there.

    As a starter for ten, over the last five years roughly 25% of Premier League matches that were 0-0 at half time ended up 0-0 at full time. You would lose money by laying the draw on such fixtures.

    Happy hunting.

    +0
    FoG_BLoG 47

    Well Tony where are you getting the value?

    I just see it as two bets in isolation. First you bet against the draw on the exchange with no real reason to think it won’t be a draw or with no real reason that the exchange has under priced the draw. The exchange odds are usually pretty much on the money so you are not getting a edge on that bet.

    Second if there is a goal you back a draw. Again at this point in time there is no reason to believe the odds on the exchange represent any particular value. So you have no edge on this bet either.

    I don’t see how combining two bad value bets gives you value.

    +3
    sleepless 8

    I had a bit of sucess with backing a draw or next goal if the clear favourite team needed a goal to draw with only 5 minutes remaining. Pure gamble though

    +0
    Tony 11

    I think the value comes in the sense that you select certain games based on particular characteristics (i.e. heavy favourite, ideally playing at home…) rather than blindly adopting this strategy. In that sense you do take a view that it won’t be a draw, although that’s all it is; an opinion.

    I don’t think you can say that the exchange odds represent “bad” value – I thought it was widely accepted that the exchange sets as close to true odds as you can get – in fact I am sure I have seen you and others say as much in other threads on here. So, maybe no extra value to be had, but not bad value either imo.

    I agree though, that by employing this strategy you are effectively banking on the favourite scoring before your stop loss point. Having a stop loss is crucial in order to ensure that when you get it wrong you don’t lost the entire Lay bet liability.

    I have only dabbled with LTD a couple of times and I never place the lay bet before KO. I like to see how a game is progressing and take a look at the stats before committing. By waiting 20, 30 or even 45 mins (with no goal, obv) the draw price has naturally decayed to some extent already, again (somewhat) reducing liability and thus protecting your bottom line.

    I have no data to say that it is a profitable strategy, but then no-one has provided any data to say that it isn’t either, yet.

    +0
    FoG_BLoG 47

    Well sorry, yes I think the exchange odds are close to true odds. But there is a gap between the back odds and lay odds, so if you are laying at the odds offered all the time then you are losing value, plus commission your losing. So that’s what I mean bad value.

    I know what you mean about being selective about the matches. I still don’t think that there is anything in this strategy. If you go for a match with a big fav then the lay odds on a draw will be high – so although your more likely to be able to hit the goal that you are looking for but for the times you don’t you will have to pay out more.

    I am trying to say that the odds have all this probability all built in.

    If you can show me that the exchange consistently offers untrue odds for a draw on the heavy favourites – or if you show me that the exchange over reacts when a goal is scored and offers inflated high odds on the draw then I can buy into the idea.

    Like I get the idea. You lay low and hope to back high when the odds rise and the odds are likely to rise because we 0-0 draws are not that common. But how high are the odds going to rise and what is the accurate probability that they will or wont rise? Yes you win a little a lot, but is it enough to cover the few times that you lose a lot?

    I don’t see where the value is, on either bet.

    +0
    Jay 1

    Thanks guys, but to address few responses.

    1. Stats online tend to be BS to sell some software or ebook. I never look at these ‘stats’ which is why I asked here from someone who can provide a snapshot of their log or something to see.

    2. Trading is gambling. There is just as much chance you will or will not be right as there is with pure gamble. Its just a strategy that you adopt and whether or not it mitigates the risk at least a little bit. Or whether the risk is appropriate to the return. Don’t get your panties in a bunch.

    Fog, Gilbs and Traider, thanks for the responses. By far the most constructive and helpful. Will not be touching this one.

    +0
    rogerbj 2

    Lay the Draw is still very much alive and kicking particulary when using the Bet365 Bore Draw
    Offer on any Football Game they cover.
    Any Traders interested drop me a mail or a PM
    Regards
    Roger

    +2
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