Matched Betting AND Value Bets

Hi guys, I have a question for you all…

I have done a lot of matching betting in Italy for almost an year and i have figured out something like 3k… not too much, but I have a work and can’t dedicate much time to match betting.

Now I’m studying even Value Betting… because sometimes i find value in some offers, but i can’t lay because no combination exists…

So I’m thinking to do this offers and let them just go…

, for example:
a boosted quote on a goalscorer at 5 instead of 2,5 (2,5 quoted by every bookmakers)… will have an edge at least of 5/3 (3, considering bookmaker juice) -> 60%… so playing this 100 times, we expected a value of 60u.
We can even create a Gauss Line and check the probability to be in loose in 100 event…

My question is, how much will be profitable the offer to let you say: “ok, i will just let go this…” and if you don’t let never go, do you fill a percentage that will stay you safe?

Thanks
PAVEL

P.S. As Always, sorry for my bad english

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Pavel4
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July 12, 2017 at 10:59 am

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bbobb 24 July 12, 2017 at 11:17 am

Bet what you can afford to lose.

If the value is there I will often just punt it (before I was gubbed I bet the Skybet boosted treble week as there was no point laying it as so many people were trying to guarantee profit).

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Ox 0 July 12, 2017 at 12:15 pm

I think you are talking about the ‘Kelly criterion’ or ‘Kelly staking’. This is a method by which you can determine how much to stake, based on the size of your bankroll and how much of an edge you have over the true odds.

Long-term it should be more profitable than laying, though it necessarily introduces a lot of variance and is not an exact science especially for events with less liquidity where you can’t necessarily rely on the exchanges to tell you the true odds.

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Mr Crispy 34 July 12, 2017 at 1:13 pm

Out of interest, if you can’t lay these bets at the exchange, how do you know if there is any value?

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Pavel4 0 July 12, 2017 at 1:30 pm

Well for example: exactly now I have done a TREBLE with odds 1,4 each, in a book that have a special offer on europa League (Tomorrow): if 1 leg goes wrong, i will have refund….
I took the best odds comparing to pinnacle (I found same odds on pinna) and I will let the treble go because all the matches play in the same day and I can’t stay at home…

You can do the maths, but In this case, there is absolutely a value…

Another example…
F1 -> Bet on a pilot, if do 2°: refund… actually in Italy we can’t lay because there isn’t a bookmaker that make you lay the winner….

And so on…

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bbobb 24 July 12, 2017 at 4:10 pm

Just punt it…. you could earn more getting a real job if you really want to spend all day doing maths.

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Mr Crispy 34 July 12, 2017 at 5:19 pm

Is that an Italian bookie?
Sound like a good offer.

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78naD 4 July 12, 2017 at 10:07 pm

As long as you apply proper bankroll management you’ll do well.

I’ve stopped laying many aspects of value bets now and the returns are great. Just today I done a few filthy e/w races and didn’t lay the place parts and made double than would have if laid.
Have a large sample size built up over time now at it and it reduces the luck factor. It clearly works and works well so go for it.

Pinnacle also a great indicator of ‘true odds’.

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fya888 0 July 19, 2017 at 7:41 pm

any assistance to fellow Canadian bettors?

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