My theory beyond matched betting

Hi all have not posted in a while and have seen the forum collapse due to the lack of offers. My online career is all but over now due to being gubbed in the last week by my last few standing accounts. Anyway people will want to argue this but over the last month I turned a 4K bankroll into 21k by something called each way arbing.

The basic jist of this is to pick races with 8,9 16-20 runners and backing certain horses each way. It always works in fields of 16-20 runners where 4 are paid and works in the 8 or 9 especially when there are 2 or 3 outsiders or an odds on favourite.

For example I put 100 ew on a 12/1 shot on bet365 in a 17 runner race. I am looking to lay at 13 on betfair. Let the lay match and as soon as it has take the 12/1. Current position is your down a max of 5 pounds on bf commission. (Use smarkets if you wish)

Then go on the place markets and lay the horse. The odds on 365 are 3/1 (4) as a 1/4 of the odds. On betfair this should be lower and often trading around 3.3/3.4. This means you can play about with the numbers to make a profit but say i lay 120 @ 3.4 to lose 288 I can make around 12-14 on this part after commission. Therefore I’m around a tenner up before the race regardless of what happens.

As my bankroll got bigger I got better at it by doing multiple horses in races and laying the places 3 mins before the start of the race. people can say what they want about me being 17k up from it but I know I have made this money and the theory works if you are sharp at maths can react quickly to mental calculations and I know a few people on here would be able to do it.

Good luck to those who go for it. I will be spending some time at mates houses over the summer and taking a 50 50 cut for the use of their name.

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beesty2016
3

June 22, 2016 at 9:37 pm

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Marv 2 June 25, 2016 at 8:28 pm

Just worked in 8.25 at Doncaster

6-7% on Beardwood I worked it out as

I will probably do a bit more research of this before any bets

Naturally Saturday afternoon will be best time of week for good returns due to liquidity

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Marv 2 June 25, 2016 at 8:34 pm

Yes beaker 8-15 runners – 3 places
16+ runners – 4 places

So value for 3 places lies with 8-9 runners and all 4 place races, as per beesty posts

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Marv 2 June 25, 2016 at 8:50 pm

Art Obsession 8.55 – few minutes ago 10% was available

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beaser 6 June 25, 2016 at 9:15 pm

Interesting stuff. Clearly it works. It’s just essentially another arb though right? I’m restricted everywhere now due to post-gubbing arbs so I’m guessing I can’t take advantage of it….

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beakerh 3 June 25, 2016 at 9:34 pm

Cheers Marv! I am the same. I can now understand why it works, may do some practise ones on a spreadsheet before having a proper go!

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beesty2016 3 June 25, 2016 at 9:44 pm

Good to see some people profit this evening on it. I did the 8.25 and made a bit but couldn’t get the match on 8.55. 365 don’t want bets of more than a pound off me now. Skybet offer me winnings of 500 when the prices become available about 5-10 mins before the race. Will hill seem to be offering a similar amount. It’s frustrating being this heavily restricted but I have still been able to make a decent chunk.

some answers to questions above:

The to be placed market on betfair syncs with the races and the I button will tell you how many places. Be aware that if a race is shortlisted and a non runner took it below 8 or 16 runners the betfair market will still pay the same places whilst the website doesn’t.

In terms of restrictions I have been restricted in the last week but the amount I made up until that point is what it was and due to them not being promotions I’m sure it gives a longer term life from normal arbing. Where I may have gone wrong is staking whatever I could as my bankroll got bigger and with my winnings. The value is with the bookie. When auditing my betfair profit and loss in 16k down from horses in the last month so he fact I was 17k up suggests I took bet365 for around 30k with a bit on skybet.

I was also on Wednesdays receiving loyalty bonuses from 365 that were the usual 10s but 3 weeks in a row this went up to 50s.

At the end of the day when I came across this I wanted to Ensure I made enough that has made me delighted and now it is time for the community to prosper. Especially at a time when there has been a lot of negativity on this forum. The positivity has also been much appreciated as I did wonder whether this would get slated.

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pbetts 2 June 25, 2016 at 10:25 pm

Thought I’d got a good match on this today guarenteeing me about £5. It was my first attempt after researching it.
Anyway it certainly didn’t go that way. Ended losing £90 as my horse finished 4th. Damaging my wealth and my health.
This is a sure way to get your hard earned matched betting income bit into, especially as the offers are drying up quite quickly.
Good luck if you try this. Be very careful though. Very careful ???

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supert 4 June 25, 2016 at 10:38 pm

I tried this too… gubbed from all my decent accounts because they saw me as an ‘arber’ … i was only doing small stakes too…. £10- £15ew to make just a few quid!!! They were onto me in a flash!!!
Its been pointed out but be very very careful…. found a cracker 8 runner race b365 1/4 odds was guaranteed a whopping £4.60 profit…. there was some ‘fun at the gates’ and one of the rascals wouldnt go in…. you guessed it my horse finished 3rd wiping my profits completely… £108 lighter!! Plus the £12 i spent on the bells whiskey to drown my sorrows!!! One to avoid imho!!

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Marv 2 June 26, 2016 at 12:03 am

In my view it is just another way or arbing

I certainly view arbing as more stand out that a matched better, but guess it is a balance between high short term profits or taking the long term view

I am not keen on arbing yet, would prefer to keep taking the offers available for as long as is possible with the odd arb here and there, over time I can then try and build my accounts up to a level that big bets do not stand out

However I have a long history on my accounts of big bets anyway, and have played casino a lot, I even had vip status with one bookie, so I assume my gubbing might take much longer to come, but I will not be greedy yet and try to prolong the offers as much as I can

Bookmaker offers have been round for years and years, I dont see any real change, well for me anyway, I am looking to be making thousands a month anyway, could say I dont have the time if there were that many more offers out there to take up to make thousands

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beesty2016 3 June 26, 2016 at 10:09 am

Today’s list:

Uttoxeter

3:30
5:40

Windsor

2:10

Curragh

4:20

Sunday’s normally a quieter list but provided the runners stay as they are these are the ones to go for today.

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mike j 11 June 26, 2016 at 11:52 am

Where are you getting your selections from beasty, or are you looking at every race and choosing the races based on your own criteria/experience

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beesty2016 3 June 26, 2016 at 12:16 pm

Yes 16 plus runners are always a solid one. And the others less than that usually have a well backed favourite and a few outsiders. Others are marginal but would rather post ones that get the highest returns.

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El chico 1 June 26, 2016 at 1:10 pm

This, just like all other horse schemes, is a one way ticket to gub central.

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dingodollar 8 June 26, 2016 at 1:25 pm

What difference does it make when you keep saying ‘if the horse ends up winning I won’t get as high a return’?Surely if your doing a straight up back and lay on the win and place all returns would be the same regardless the result?

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Dave_Jones 7 June 26, 2016 at 8:17 pm

Can you answer the following when you get a chance beesty?

1. Can you explain the logic behind the type of races this seems to work for. I know your looking generally for quite big field and one or two really short priced favorites and some really long odds outsiders.

Is it anything to do with a bookies overround, I read something about this type of thing on another forum some time back, but I have to admit I didn’t really understand what the poster was saying.

2. I think it might be wise for people to use accounts that are already gubbed (but not restriced) to try this. This type of thing has been mentioned on other forums for many years (but not for the kind of money beesty has made), so I assume the bookies are well aware of it. What do you think?

3. I looked at a couple of races last week using Coral (I am gubbed there) but the place arbs lasted for just a few seconds and I was not quick enough. Do you find that you only have a few seconds to make the place arb bets, or had I selected poor races, or is Coral not a good bookie to do this type of thing.

It would appear beesty has made most of the money from Bet365, and has maybe been very lucky to have taken them for £30K before they restricted him. It would be just my luck to make a tiny fraction of this and be restricted straight away. Bet365 is a fairly good bookie and I don’t really want to loose it, obviously if I knew I could make anything like what beesty did off them then I would happily do it. I just don’t think I would get away with it, and probably would be gubbed and restricted after making just a few pounds.

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