My theory beyond matched betting

  • Hi all have not posted in a while and have seen the forum collapse due to the lack of offers. My online career is all but over now due to being gubbed in the last week by my last few standing accounts. Anyway people will want to argue this but over the last month I turned a 4K bankroll into 21k by something called each way arbing.

    The basic jist of this is to pick races with 8,9 16-20 runners and backing certain horses each way. It always works in fields of 16-20 runners where 4 are paid and works in the 8 or 9 especially when there are 2 or 3 outsiders or an odds on favourite.

    For example I put 100 ew on a 12/1 shot on bet365 in a 17 runner race. I am looking to lay at 13 on betfair. Let the lay match and as soon as it has take the 12/1. Current position is your down a max of 5 pounds on bf commission. (Use smarkets if you wish)

    Then go on the place markets and lay the horse. The odds on 365 are 3/1 (4) as a 1/4 of the odds. On betfair this should be lower and often trading around 3.3/3.4. This means you can play about with the numbers to make a profit but say i lay 120 @ 3.4 to lose 288 I can make around 12-14 on this part after commission. Therefore I’m around a tenner up before the race regardless of what happens.

    As my bankroll got bigger I got better at it by doing multiple horses in races and laying the places 3 mins before the start of the race. people can say what they want about me being 17k up from it but I know I have made this money and the theory works if you are sharp at maths can react quickly to mental calculations and I know a few people on here would be able to do it.

    Good luck to those who go for it. I will be spending some time at mates houses over the summer and taking a 50 50 cut for the use of their name.

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    deathstar 25

    Thanks beesty
    5.35 is a bit strange, smarkets is paying 3 places but some books are paying 4. BUT they aren’t advertising it like they usually do so I wonder whether they will revert as the day goes on?

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    supert 3

    Becareful with the ones at Dundalk tonight … they look like 16 runner hcaps but there are reserves so i think less than 16 are running! That is why betfair only showing the placed tab as 3tbp not 4 and also many bookies only showing 1/4 1st 3

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    bossanova 0

    got 50 ew williamhill 6 on templeross

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    bossanova 0

    how do you manage to get coupon prices in the shops? do you hang around the shops all day long and bet as soon as prices move?

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    bossanova 0

    a good skin 13:30 chelt
    bet365 7.5/7.2

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    FoG_BLoG 47

    No tips on here in a while. Today doesn’t look like a bad day might start to try and get involved.

    I am looking at the below if I can just get a slightly tighter match on the win and assume that the to place lay odds will shorten as the to place market wakes up before the races.

    Master Of Irony catterick 13:50
    Project Bluebook catterick 12:50
    Hidden Cargo wincanton 13:10
    Tilsworth Micky southwell 13:00
    Epeius southwell 13:00

    Obviously a big danger in the 13:00 in Southwell if a non runner.

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    FoG_BLoG 47

    Project Blue Book I matched at 6/6.2 and his to place fell to 1.76 on the exchange. That was a guaranteed profit of £3.28 off a £15 e/w stake.

    Tilworth Micky I already matched at 17.0/24.0 and his to place I got at 2.2. Thats guaranteed £5.83 profit on a £10 e/w stakes.

    Profit in this process for sure. I need to urgently build up my exchange float so that I can ramp up my stakes.

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    Stanleybayor 7

    @Fog_Blog I had exactly the same concern about the 1300 Southwell race. However, this is clearly a profitable strategy if there aren’t any non-runners.

    Does anyone have any credible statistics about the likelihood of non-runners in say 10 mins before the off?

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    sleepless 8

    What is the latest point a runner becomes a non-runner?.
    Different rules for stalls?.

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    MonkeyTennis 1

    If it comes under starter’s orders then it’s deemed to be a runner. So if it’s in the stalls or lining up but then refuses to run its a loser. If it’s pulled out of the race any time before coming under orders, then it’s a non runner.

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    sleepless 8

    Cheers Monkey.

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    Chris 19

    ANyone get on the 12.20 race with Mormont? Massive arb there with the win 23/23 and place 5.4/2.3.

    Sorry it happened so quick otherwise I would have posted it.

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    FoG_BLoG 47

    My top 5 horses that I am watching and trying to get on this morning. Or any horse in these few races really. Watch out for a non runner in the newcastle one as it would ruin my day.

    Thisonetime uttoxeter 12:05
    Annie Alainn uttoxeter 13:10
    Cobolobo uttoxeter 12:05
    Shambougg uttoxeter 12:05
    Bizzarria newcastle 12:25

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    FoG_BLoG 47

    Some value in Wolves too it looks.

    You can get Petit Filous at 3.25/3.25 in the 15:45 and wait see if his place price drops. There are 9 runners, so unless 2 non runners its safe enough. I know its still a bit early.

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    DelJo 0

    Hi Fog

    In simple terms am I right in saying you back these horses early wait for the exchange price to drop then lay the win part of the bet. Then wait for the place part to drop nearer the off. Is my understanding of this correct.

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