My theory beyond matched betting

  • Hi all have not posted in a while and have seen the forum collapse due to the lack of offers. My online career is all but over now due to being gubbed in the last week by my last few standing accounts. Anyway people will want to argue this but over the last month I turned a 4K bankroll into 21k by something called each way arbing.

    The basic jist of this is to pick races with 8,9 16-20 runners and backing certain horses each way. It always works in fields of 16-20 runners where 4 are paid and works in the 8 or 9 especially when there are 2 or 3 outsiders or an odds on favourite.

    For example I put 100 ew on a 12/1 shot on bet365 in a 17 runner race. I am looking to lay at 13 on betfair. Let the lay match and as soon as it has take the 12/1. Current position is your down a max of 5 pounds on bf commission. (Use smarkets if you wish)

    Then go on the place markets and lay the horse. The odds on 365 are 3/1 (4) as a 1/4 of the odds. On betfair this should be lower and often trading around 3.3/3.4. This means you can play about with the numbers to make a profit but say i lay 120 @ 3.4 to lose 288 I can make around 12-14 on this part after commission. Therefore I’m around a tenner up before the race regardless of what happens.

    As my bankroll got bigger I got better at it by doing multiple horses in races and laying the places 3 mins before the start of the race. people can say what they want about me being 17k up from it but I know I have made this money and the theory works if you are sharp at maths can react quickly to mental calculations and I know a few people on here would be able to do it.

    Good luck to those who go for it. I will be spending some time at mates houses over the summer and taking a 50 50 cut for the use of their name.

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    beesty2016 3

    For example 7.35 sharja queen currently 6/1 on 365 that is 2.2 for the place not much liquidity but current prices would mean I’d predict it to go around 1.9 for the place.

    In the 6:30 Irish races take time for money to be matched but if you play bookmaker and get your money in on horses you can get a few matched up early.

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    matchedbetting
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    @beesty2016 – are you using any software to spot the arbs are just doing it manually? – how much are you betting on each race and how much you making?

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    AM 0

    Missed the races mentioned above. How did people get on

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    beesty2016 3

    Matched betting was putting as much as I could before I got I gubbed. Sometimes managed to get as high as 1k each way. Average winnings depended on the disparity of the place markets so sometimes it could be a 10-20 win on a horse other times up to 150 and beyond.

    A little one for people is murray to win Wimbledon at 7/2 each way on sky. Can back and lay to be only commission down at 4.5. 1/2 the odds mean it is 2.75 for him to reach the final. I would predict when betfair put the market on he will trade around 2.2-2.3. I’m restricted to 40 quid each way but if you have the roll then this one could be profitable but only problem is tying your money up for potentially 2 weeks.

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    beesty2016 3

    Apologies if anyone tries the boost is win only. 3/1 for ew protection means it’s not worth it. Be aware of channel 4 races today guys. Some will be profitable in b365 and one race is extra place on sky.

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    matchedbetting
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    Good stuff mate, sounds like it works – will have a go myself sometime soon

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    Gr43m3 0

    @beesty2016 I understand you’re not able to the Murray each way bet due to it being a price boost. But just to get my head around the process a little more, if you could do each way on the odds of 4.5 and bet £40 each way, how do then work out what you need to lay on win and to reach the final?

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    MbPunter 18

    You’re getting 3.5/1 (4.5) for the Win and 1/2 the odds for final 1.75/1 (2.75).

    So in beesty’s example run £40 at 4.5/4.4
    through the calculator, small qualifying profit.

    Then £40 at 2.75/2.2 would result in a £8-9 guaranteed profit.

    Even at 3/1 i suspect Murray will be a profitable each way arb. Should be odds on to reach the final really.

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    beesty2016 3

    Right list of profitable races as things stand this afternoon are as follows. This is non runner permitting. All are with 365 unless stated

    Newcastle –

    1:55
    3:40 – skybet pay 5
    4:15 – skybet pay 5

    Windsor

    2:40

    Newmarket

    3:55

    Curragh

    4:40
    5:20

    These all have a decent chance of working. Good luck to anyone who has a go! I may join in on some of my restricted accounts.

    Please be aware that a non runner could effect these above so I would wait until an hour before the races on any that currently have 5,8 or 16 runners as one pulling out now could cause problems.

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    beaser 6

    I’m at a bit of a loss with your selections Beesty? I thought you were after races with enhanced places?

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    beesty2016 3

    Needs certain characteristics beaser. 1.55 Newcastle just got on champion harbour at 10/1 so place should be 3 only can do five ew but perfect for someone with a bankroll.

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    beesty2016 3

    Seabring at 16/1 I got as well on sky for 3ew so frustrating being restricted as the place should be 4.2 but currently 3.1 when I type. Sorry to bombard it but couple of examples as to how it works.

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    RyanB 11

    So all you’re doing is finding good lay place odds really? So you make a loss I presume laying the win part of the bet but because you have good lay to place odds thats where your profit is at?

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    MbPunter 18

    That Champion Harbour. Not a place arb though? 365 going 1/5 odds.

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    RyanB 11

    He said Sky think they are?

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