My theory beyond matched betting

Hi all have not posted in a while and have seen the forum collapse due to the lack of offers. My online career is all but over now due to being gubbed in the last week by my last few standing accounts. Anyway people will want to argue this but over the last month I turned a 4K bankroll into 21k by something called each way arbing.

The basic jist of this is to pick races with 8,9 16-20 runners and backing certain horses each way. It always works in fields of 16-20 runners where 4 are paid and works in the 8 or 9 especially when there are 2 or 3 outsiders or an odds on favourite.

For example I put 100 ew on a 12/1 shot on bet365 in a 17 runner race. I am looking to lay at 13 on betfair. Let the lay match and as soon as it has take the 12/1. Current position is your down a max of 5 pounds on bf commission. (Use smarkets if you wish)

Then go on the place markets and lay the horse. The odds on 365 are 3/1 (4) as a 1/4 of the odds. On betfair this should be lower and often trading around 3.3/3.4. This means you can play about with the numbers to make a profit but say i lay 120 @ 3.4 to lose 288 I can make around 12-14 on this part after commission. Therefore I’m around a tenner up before the race regardless of what happens.

As my bankroll got bigger I got better at it by doing multiple horses in races and laying the places 3 mins before the start of the race. people can say what they want about me being 17k up from it but I know I have made this money and the theory works if you are sharp at maths can react quickly to mental calculations and I know a few people on here would be able to do it.

Good luck to those who go for it. I will be spending some time at mates houses over the summer and taking a 50 50 cut for the use of their name.

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beesty2016
3

June 22, 2016 at 9:37 pm

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beesty2016 3 June 26, 2016 at 8:38 pm

Right Dave let’s try and answer them:

1) if in an 8 race there is say a 33/1 two 50/1s and a 66/1 these 4 horses have a very small chance of coming in the top 3 so are disregarded. Let’s assume in the same race there is a 1/2 favourite. This means the other 3 horses could be priced say at 3/1 6/1 and 12/1. May be inaccurate here.

Anyway the 6/1 at 1/5th odds for the place would be 1.2/1 or 2.2 to finish in the top 3. However it is 3rd favourite and 4 are long odds so really it would be 1.8 possibly to come in the places. Therefore an ew bet would be ideal here if I can lay the win really close to 7 and then strike on the place market on betfair.

2) that is an adviseable tactic. If your matched betting career is over with them then take them for some more money before they do whatever they want to with you.

3) I hope you weren’t looking at the place markets on coral as these are different to the each way bets. The each way should give you a better price than any place markets. Coral is a company I hate from my mb experience I can’t even bet a penny with them. So they are number 1 2 hit if I take this to the shops on my summer break.

4) never put a bet through the traders. Towards the last few days of it some races they would take a few hundred and then refer me to traders if I wanted anymore. I always said no. In hindsight this was probably when the beginning of the end was coming but I was still able to get 400ew on pretty easily and was just milking it for what it was at the time.

I do think this is a lot more highly skilled than straight arbing and harder to detect as I’m really looking to match the win bets up and then profit on the place markets. It is even possible to take a small loss in certain races where the place is more beneficial.

I even towards the end had more advanced methods that meant I hit a couple of bogs or had to flip things over the other way on drifters and cashout the 365 bet at a 10pc loss which was covered in betfair. These scenarios were rare but think that would be too hard to explain on here.

If you go for the basics from the short lists I put on you shouldn’t go wrong. Work may be busy tomorrow so may not be able to put one on but if I do I will and as usual good luck.

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pbetts 2 June 26, 2016 at 10:01 pm

FAO Beesty

Are you working for the bookies? Because if not, people might as well jump on a remex to gubsville. I won’t be following this (as I’ve been burnt) but let people do it for themselves. The bookies will be all over this and will be sweeping people off left right and centre!
Fair enough if it is good advice, but leave it at that.

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supert 4 June 26, 2016 at 10:12 pm

I agree with pbetts…. you cant buy a return ticket from gubbsville… this train is one way only… and the people on this train carry spades and dig holes for arbers in the desert!!

Shop staff will sniff you out after a couple of bets too as stakes over the counter are so small these days!!
Hurry up guys and get on this system…. the last train to gubsville is leaving soon!!

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wottsy 4 June 26, 2016 at 10:19 pm

This is great profit! I heard about EW arbing a while back but it seemed to complicated. I have been doing it with small stakes now and it is going really well. My method is less profitable but also less risky than yours in that I wait for the arb to appear, back first and immediately lay without waiting for the place odds to come in. While this is basically just arbing, I get the feeling EW arbs will not flag you up in the same way that win arbs will. The value comes from the place portion of your bet, and while im sure the bookies do keep an eye on the place markets on the exchange, they dont seem to adjust their odds in response to it in the same way.

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Dave_Jones 7 June 26, 2016 at 11:13 pm

Excellent explanation beesty thanks for taking the time I appreciate it, makes a lot more sense now that I can see the logic behind it. Will give it a try over the next week or so.

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pbetts 2 June 27, 2016 at 7:42 am

Supert

We seem to be on the same page with this but it’s interesting your view on shop betting. Surely you could mix the shops up if you have a few in the area?

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MbPunter 18 June 27, 2016 at 10:05 am

Pbetts, out of interest what happened to you? You say you hit a 4th place? Was there a non runner that reduced bookies place down to 3?

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MbPunter 18 June 27, 2016 at 10:13 am

Beesty, did you ever do eachway on shorter priced runners? Or is that too obvious what you’re doing?

In one of the races you posted yesterday the 2.10 Windsor. The 2nd fave was 7/4 and similar to lay on exchange. The place 1.35, was 1.18 to lay.

Anyway cheers for posting, i did all 4 races yesterday on gubbed accounts, total bets £1300, returned £113 profit. Ironically had i used non gubbed accounts i would have profited an extra £75 from BOG in the race mentioned above.

Do agree with others though that it could be a fast way to being gubbed, but if i can squeeze an extra few quid from those accounts then this approach is definitely worthwhile.

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Dave_Jones 7 June 27, 2016 at 10:48 am

Excellent results MbPunter, I think using gubbed accounts like you have done is the way forward with this strategy as I don’t think most of us would make anything like the amount of profit beesty made before having our accounts restricted. Hopefully with the arb just being on the place part of the E/W bet bookies will not be so quick to punish us.

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MbPunter 18 June 27, 2016 at 11:32 am

Just a correction to that, i did actually place a couple of bets in the extra place race at sky, where i’m not gubbed.

Yeah i think it depends on the races, the ones with a big odds on fave i think it looks obvious what you’re doing or it feels obvious to me at least. Bigger races on Channel 4, hopefully fine.

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pbetts 2 June 27, 2016 at 10:25 pm

Mbpunter

Firstly. Well done on your profits ??
And to your question, that is exactly what happened pal. If the non runner had have run, then it would have been fine I think. Got burnt mate.
Was watching the 20.25 at Windsor tonight (8 horse race). I had a few quid on the fav ?. There was one nag who nearly didn’t go in. That wouldve been costly on those that backed killachy each way. Anyhow, good luck pal ???

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mike j 11 June 29, 2016 at 9:08 am

How has everyone been getting on with this, I am struggling to find races.

Beesty, isn’t this basically trading, waiting for closer the race then laying the place?

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Dave_Jones 7 June 29, 2016 at 11:53 am

I haven’t had much time to spend on this so far. Looked yesterday evening at a couple of races and couldn’t find anything decent. Most of the ones I found, you lost more on the win part of the bet than you gained on the place part, even when using smarkets and paying 2% comms.

I think the trick is to try and select the right races, beesty has given some good info as to how to go about doing this, I should get some more time over the next few days to see if I can make this work.

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MbPunter 18 June 29, 2016 at 12:41 pm

I’ve not had much chance during the week to look. But have a gander at 2.10 Perth. 9 runners at moment so as pbetts warned be wary of a couple of withdrawals.

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AM 0 June 29, 2016 at 2:16 pm

4.20 at Worcester might be a good shout. Been keeping an eye on these and had a tester on the 2.10 Perth with 10 e/w. Looking like a 15% return on that one. Not a bad start. Will start upping the stakes when get a bit more confident in doing it

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