Where is your edge though? Seems like just blind laying faves and hoping the match goes your way to trade a win?
I know you are accepting a loss if it doesn’t.

If you are laying a team/horse at 1.75 are you saying you believe they should be 1.9 so it’s a value lay?

Would definitely be interested in a Trading section on the forum though.

@ paulmc_mb I’d agree with FoG and exercise some caution. Given true odds at the exchange, random trading without commission is a zero sum game long term, with it it’s a loss maker. If you have made 2K in two weeks, whether by luck or design, this must be down to exceptionally good match selection!

I’m curious, how are you placing a stop loss into the market without using automated software? If you place a back bet into the market which is lower than the current price, doesn’t the exchange best price execution just match the bet there and then, effectively closing out the trade?

Congrats OP on the wins, but would echo the others and I suspect you may have gone on a nice heater the past 2 weeks. I think MbPunters thoughts are spot on…where is your edge? You need a 2-5% edge just to overcome comm. I’m sure there’s plenty of market inefficiences to make this possible…..just finding them!

Having said that, I know very little about trading and agree with everyone, definitely worthy of lots of discussion.

You seem aware of bankroll management so that’s another positive.

This may sound stupid but….aren’t you essentially just gambling? Your laying the favourite if they score you cash out for a loss if they don’t you profit? doesn’t sound much different to normal gambling of just backing an outcome?

Probably miles wrong but interested into how you are doing this! Well done on the profit though mate.

Thanks for all the comments everyone. I am not sure what an “edge” is? However I would like to know so that I can factor that in, in improve. It is my belief that trading is a form of gambling anyway, just with money management and limiting your risks (such as I do). I am sure I have a long way to go before I get this right, hence I feel a new forum category would help me/us.

Kindest regards,
Paul

try the betangel software guys it’s very good

This forum sometimes…

How can you have an edge if you’re blindly laying favourites and hoping they drift in-play? Also, it’s not possible to use an automatic stop loss without software (as Blue mentioned).

I’m not doubting that you made the amount you claim, as it’s possible with variance in sports betting, but I worry that you are playing worse than a zero-sum game with no edge. The majority of strategies, generally, that I personally use are based on years of historical data. I’m not trying to be harsh – before Ryan jumps on my back – I am merely warning you (and others) that you will lose your starting capital if you are blindly laying favourites. I’ve seen far too many people attempt to trade financial markets without any research or preparation and expect to win. 90/90/90: 90% of retail traders lose 90% of their money within 90 days.

Understood Mark, I simply want to improve what I do, and so everyone to share ideas.

Fair enough. My recommendation would be to data mine and analyse/backtest as much as possible. Good luck to you!

BTW, Sheffield Wed and Cardiff where perfect for today using my idea 🙂

Wish I was with internet at the time 🙁

Ryan you’re right that he’s essentially gambling, but that’s what trading is in a nutshell as there’s a risk involved.

2 good selections today Paul.
People are right to warn you and to point holes, but if it’s working then keep at it, fine tune it as you go and record the data as Mark said.

Thanks Dan87

Dan you mean well but you’ve given terrible advice.

Keep going because it’s worked well for a week? bullshit.

If you really thought that the favourite was not going to win, you’d be a lot better off looking for odds on bookies ‘double chance’ markets where the odds are very close to the exchange.

That way you won’t lose out to commission, and you won’t lose out to your own mistakes, i.e. cashing out and then the fave wins anyway.

Still a nonsense strategy though. Good luck

Are the double chance odds really that generous? Not taken much interest in them but i find the faves are generally priced close to the exchange, which would leave the double chance side as poor value at the bookies.