I am trading the Gif Sundsvall v Orebro Sk game with Orebro Sk As a lay bet, at the moment. Already laid 0 – 0 🙂

This is like taking card from a baby. The stats showed that they are both goal scorers, but Orebo are sketchy away…

Made tidy profit on that again tonight. Not sure how it’s working. Will see what it’s at after 1,000 matches

Hi Dan,

Here is my suggested thoughts as to why it should work.

1) We are being selective on the teams we choose:
a) The must have odds of 1.6 to 2 (We profit at least 100%, before commission), and lose only it things go south (all be it a small amount).
b) We try to chose teams (as in step a) that look to have a bad home/away form recently. All teams have good and bad times…

Now, looking at one league (chosen at random) here is what chance we had laying home/away:

Team Lay Home Lay Away
Bradford 43% 60%
Rochdale 45% 71%
Millwall 48% 55%
Southend 52% 70%
Fleetwood Town 60% 86%
Coventry 55% 71%
Port Vale 48% 76%
Scunthorpe 52% 70%
Walsall 58% 43%
Bury 57% 75%
Swindon 60% 71%
Burton 40% 48%
Blackpool 64% 80%
Shrewsbury 75% 65%
Barnsley 52% 50%
Doncaster 75% 81%
Crewe 85% 86%
Peterboro 62% 60%
Colchester 80% 76%
Chesterfield 75% 57%

Even if we look at the combined average for each team:

Team Combined
Bradford 51%
Rochdale 58%
Millwall 51%
Southend 61%
Fleetwood Town 73%
Coventry 63%
Port Vale 62%
Scunthorpe 61%
Walsall 50%
Bury 66%
Swindon 66%
Burton 44%
Blackpool 72%
Shrewsbury 70%
Barnsley 51%
Doncaster 78%
Crewe 85%
Peterboro 61%
Colchester 78%
Chesterfield 66%

We would have only lost money if placed a lay bet on Burton (assuming their odds where at 2).

Furthermore, I have seen Barcelona at odds on fav, both at home and away. Yes they do not lose many, but they have lost 3x more games away than at home. These might be recent, but that is a factor – looking at the recent form.

Please correct me if I am wrong, as I want to see if this works for the long-term?

Hi Paul where did you get the above stats from for leauge one teams?i might give this a try tonight. What teams are you going for?Thanks

Hi Jdubu,

These are calculated using data from: https://www.football-data.co.uk/downloadm.php

Any matched as are not on here, I do “by hand” at the moment. I will be laying all favs that have odds between 1.6 and 2. I will then be keen to watch these games, if any have goals in the wrong direction, I cash out or trade out (either for a small loss).

Anyone lay The York vs Portsmouth game? ???

no but wow what a shock result!take it you got on it?

Yes I am on it, just look at Portsmouth away stats recently… If this helps, this is how I make this system work.

Still don’t get it..could do with Mark’s Analysis. Sounds to me you just looked at recent fixtures and basically had a bet on Portsmouth not to win? just sounds like a normal bet to me?

Where is the trading involved? aren’t you just hoping the game goes your way just like a normal bet…?

Agree with you Ryan.

I know nothing about this trading but I thought it was to do with like backing horses on exchange and waiting for the odds to go your way to make money (obviously good knowledge of horses needed) therefore the result of the horse race makes no difference to you as you have already made your money. Your method in my eyes is like me picking a horse and laying it and hoping it doesnt win ie result goes my way? Perhaps i’m wrong and just dont understand trading!

Edit: obviously not just horse racing just an example

Have a gander at this: https://www.cymatic.co.uk/UserManual/Greening.aspx

I do this in betfair or smarkets… I apply this when:
1) I need to minimise a losing lay bet
2) a game is a draw at 70 mins still

I do not usually trade out on such a strong win as tonight as it would means loosing profit.

Hope that helps?

Yup, in horses that would work. Football odds tend to move much slower.

How you trade is up to you. This is just what I do…

Paulmc_mb you may yet prove us all wrong BUT to be a successful trader I think you need either

A) develop a predictive system better than anyone else

Or

B) have some inside information

You’re going the right direction by analysing win % etc but it has to go much much deeper than that. Soccer analytics is starting to bloom.

https://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/soccer/how-to-calculate-poisson-distribution

https://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/soccer/how-to-calculate-goal-models

https://www.aenorm.nl/files/nlaenorm/file/aenorm_67/Modelling_the_Score_of_Premier_League_Football_Matches.pdf

If you have a good predictive model then you can spot where the payout is high enough to make a long term profit…

I’m not sure how you are spotting value…

The cashing out tricks and greening up tricks are just ways of getting your money out after the match goes your way but how are you picking matches that are likely enough to go your way so that the payout out weighs the risk. You need to have some sort of predictive model (beyond looking at simple home win percentages).