”I am not sure what an “edge” is”

It’s something you know but that the market doesn’t or hasn’t taken in to account.

Maybe you saw the star striker of your local team out on a binge-drinking coke-fest Friday night and deduce this will adversely affect his performance come KO saturday, so lay his team on your mobi from the club before word gets out.

This Bet Angel TV video is quite interesting and demonstrates that trading can have risks, and what to do with these in the given trade: https://youtu.be/jf28ULrl07s

Are the double chance odds really that generous? Not taken much interest in them but i find the faves are generally priced close to the exchange, which would leave the double chance side as poor value at the bookies.

Asian Handicaps are usually more generous in my experience….at the right books AH2+0.5 = X2 etc.

Thanks for explaining the edge. I think the way I look at it is that:

1) a score of 1 – 1 is the most common score
2) most teams (all teams?) do not have a perfect “win” record, especially at odds of 1.6 to 2.

Not suggesting we all punt our houses on double chance odds (Don’t let Chris see this)

But if you had some belief that favourites weren’t going to win, better to bet that on bookies as you won’t lose to commission.

If you could get an arb for example on a double chance market, then perfect, punt it instead of arbing and you’ll definitely have an edge (the arb edge + the value of your own belief/strategy(whatever that’s worth)).

Just to add something here. Coral announced Friday evening I think they were going to boost Jamie Vardy to score anytime from 1/1 to 2/1 at 12pm Sunday max bet £10. At around 10am the back/lay was around 2.5. I was nearly 100% certain that as soon as the offer went live the lay would shoot up due to everyone laying the offer, and sure enough it did, went to around 2.82.

Anyway, am I right in saying I could have lumped a lot of money on him to score anytime on the exchange at 2.5, and when the odds went up to around 2.8 cashed this out for some decent profit?

I assume this is trading right?

You would have had to lay him at 2.5 and then yes could have traded out on the drift to 2.82.

Cheers didn’t know which way round, but anyway regardless of how to do it..I assume this was correct was with nearly all these offers I have noticed that the lay shoots up soon as the offer is live….so this would probably work?

Yes. But not if you tell everyone 😉

Wasn’t going to do it myself to be honest, as don’t know enough about this Trading. But I guess its an idea for OP to try….soon as offers go Live from bookies usually a big swing in odds 🙂

Neat idea 🙂

I wish I had a lay bet on Barca, humph!! I could see that they are going through a bad patch, but could not see them playing poorly at home 🙁

Plus their odds were outside of my “rules”…

Did anyone lay/trade that one?

Played around with your thing a bit today. Sample size of 21 games. Added 1% to the BR I’d set aside to play with it. Paid for the little time I put in.
Explain what you do when a game goes south early on Paul?

I was surprised by how many winning trades there were, a higher hit rate than I expected. The trades that didn’t go well I wasn’t at the computer to do a stop loss, some I got a few quid on to minimise the loss but a few I didn’t do anything about, Day’s profit would have been much higher if I’d paid attention to it

*played around with your thing a bit today…???? Fuck… Johnson will have a field day when he says this 🙁

Hi Dan,

Yeah, looks like some good games for trading on the fav to loose. When games go south, normally, I:

When on smarkets: trade for a small loss
When on betfair: cash out for a small loss.

Attention is key, but the trading group I use on Facebook have rubber stamped this as “normal” when not using software for trading.

Don’t worry about Johnson.. nothing ventured, nothing gained. This does work with good money management and an open mind.

Today I focuses on another technique… On games where statistically the first goal is scored after 20 mins, lay over 2.5 goals and cash out at 20 mins for about £2 when using £25, but it seems that odds need to be between 1.7 and 1.96 – not sure why, but that soon became apparent.